####018004228#### AXPZ20 KNHC 230315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from northwest Colombia to 07N79W to 08N89W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N104W to 06N120W to 03N135W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W-119W. Scattered moderate convection is 05N to 11N between 120W-125W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 122W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is present west of Baja California, with a ridge axis that extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough that is over the Gulf of California is allowing for generally gentle to locally moderate winds west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern slopes of Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico, and 3 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds winds and moderate seas will persist west of Baja California through late Wed. Winds will then freshen Thu through and Fri. Fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Tue before diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft tonight with the gap winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over most of these waters, except off Ecuador, where seas are peaking to about 7 ft. For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will persist across the region through the week. Seas will be mostly 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell, except 6 to 7 ft off Ecuador through tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue, then continue through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is analyzed over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 08N to 15N between 120W and 129W and from 05N to 18N between 120W and 140W, where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range due to a mix of long-period northwest swell and shorter period trade wind generated waves. Weak low pressure of 1017 mb is located north of the area near 32N131W, with a trough extending to 30N131W, then southwestward to 28N133W and to 26N140W. No significant weather is noted with these system. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of the trough along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mostly gentle trade winds are over the discussion waters. Aside from the seas in the tradewind zone mentioned above, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, wind speeds and wave heights will remain similar through the week, with an area of 7 to 9 ft seas persisting roughly from 08N to 12N W of 130W. The aforementioned weak low pressure is expected to move east-southeastward and enter the far north-central portion of the discussion waters on Wed. Moderate to fresh north winds will follow the low. These winds are forecast to reach westward to near 131W. Seas are expected to be in the range of 5 to 7 ft with these winds. $$ Aguirre