####018004229#### AXPZ20 KNHC 080957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 08 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from northwest Colombia, southwestward to 07N78W to 06N83W to 06N86W and to 05N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N110W to 01N130W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm south of the trough between 84W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds have become gentle, northwest to north in direction over the northern Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. High pressure remains the dominate synoptic weather feature over the waters west of Baja California. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are present over these waters. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are south of Cabo San Lazaro to near 18N while higher seas of 8-11 ft due to northwest swell are north of Cabo San Lazaro. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are noted along with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northwest winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds today. The 8 to 11 ft seas will slowly subside to 7-10 ft by late today and to 4 to 7 ft bay late on Sat. Looking ahead, high pressure building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will tighten the gradient in southeastern Mexico leading to gale- force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun through late Sun night. These winds are expected to generate rough seas downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas persist across the region as highlighted in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region through the weekend, with late night or early morning pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo region. High pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region by Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is also the dominate synoptic weather feature across this part of the area as a 1020 mb center is located north of the near 32N133W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes revealed quite an extensive swath of fresh to strong trade winds over the western part of the area roughly from 07N to 18N west of about 124W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft due to a combination of mixed north and east swell with wind generated waves. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong trade winds over the western part of the area will diminish some in coverage on Fri, then increase again beginning late tonight and through the weekend. Seas over this part of the area will change little through the weekend. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell is forecast to begin to intrude into the far northwest corner of the area starting early on Sat and continue to advance through the northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas with this swell will be 8-12 ft through late Sat, with the highest of the seas to be confined over the northwest part of the area. It appears that the southern extent of the swell set will merge with the swell that is over the western part of the area late Sat night into Sun. Yet another large set of northwest swell is indicated by the Wave models to begin to approach the far northwest corner late Sun night with seas also peaking to 12 ft. $$ Aguirre