####018005668#### AXPZ20 KNHC 310726 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northerly Swell: A cold front extends from 29N115W to 22N125W to 20.5N140W. This front will be followed by subsequent surface troughs over the next couple of days and will be accompanied by reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft and greater continue to spread southward across waters N of 24N between 118W and 137W with peak seas around 18 ft near 30N. This swell will continue to propagate as far south as 22N by this afternoon. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your national weather service for more details on conditions near the coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 03N84W. The ITCZ continues from 03N84W to 06N94W to 06N111W, then resumes from 05N113W to 04N138W. A southern ITCZ extends from 03.4S96W to 00N98W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near the S-central Arizona to across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. Strong to near gale-force SW winds are N of 30N in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough, along with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are across the remainder of the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are both ahead of and behind the front from Punta Eugenia northward. Large NW swell as described above with seas of 8 to 14 ft is propagating into the Baja California Norte waters. Gentle to moderate winds under a weak ridge prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell, except mixed with SW swell across the Tehuantepec zone. For the forecast, the cold front and subsequent surface troughs will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of California through Mon, bringing fresh to strong winds and large NW swell. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Sun night. The swell will very gradually decay through early next week. Ridging will build in behind the front/troughs with fresh to strong winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Mon night through Wed. Similar winds may develop in the central and southern Gulf of California Tue night through Wed night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Thu night. Also, near gale force northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo, with fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft from Panama northward, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through this morning, then moderate to fresh through Tue morning. Seas will occasionally build to 8 ft there through this evening. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through early Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a significant northerly swell over the northern waters. A cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending from 29N115W to 22N125W to 20.5N140W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N between 120W and 136W. Associated significant NW-N swell continues to outrun the front as described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, the weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N of the region. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters away from the front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A 1011 mb low pressure area is along a trough, embedded in the ITCZ near 06N112W. Associated conveciton has diminished somewhat. For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will continue to weaken and drift south through today, leading to weak tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the ridge will rebuild early this week, freshening trades. Trades may further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of the week. The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early this week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky ####018005661#### AXPZ20 KNHC 310727 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northerly Swell: A cold front extends from 29N115W to 22N125W to 20.5N140W. This front will be followed by subsequent surface troughs over the next couple of days and will be accompanied by reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft and greater continue to spread southward across waters N of 24N between 118W and 137W with peak seas around 18 ft near 30N. This swell will continue to propagate as far south as 22N by this afternoon. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your national weather service for more details on conditions near the coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 03N84W. The ITCZ continues from 03N84W to 06N94W to 06N111W, then resumes from 05N113W to 04N138W. A southern ITCZ extends from 03.4S96W to 00N98W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near the S-central Arizona to across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. Strong to near gale-force SW winds are N of 30N in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough, along with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are across the remainder of the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are both ahead of and behind the front from Punta Eugenia northward. Large NW swell as described above with seas of 8 to 14 ft is propagating into the Baja California Norte waters. Gentle to moderate winds under a weak ridge prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell, except mixed with SW swell across the Tehuantepec zone. For the forecast, the cold front and subsequent surface troughs will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of California through Mon, bringing fresh to strong winds and large NW swell. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. The swell will very gradually decay through early next week. Ridging will build in behind the front/troughs with fresh to strong winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Mon night through Wed. Similar winds may develop in the central and southern Gulf of California Tue night through Wed night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Thu night. Also, near gale force northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo, with fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft from Panama northward, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through this morning, then moderate to fresh through Tue morning. Seas will occasionally build to 8 ft there through this evening. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through early Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a significant northerly swell over the northern waters. A cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending from 29N115W to 22N125W to 20.5N140W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N between 120W and 136W. Associated significant NW-N swell continues to outrun the front as described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, the weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N of the region. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters away from the front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A 1011 mb low pressure area is along a trough, embedded in the ITCZ near 06N112W. Associated conveciton has diminished somewhat. For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will continue to weaken and drift south through today, leading to weak tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the ridge will rebuild early this week, freshening trades. Trades may further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of the week. The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early this week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky