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AXPZ20 KNHC 311532

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Large Northerly Swell: A cold front extends from 26N116W to

20N135W. This front will be followed by subsequent surface 

troughs over the next couple of days and will be accompanied by 

reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft and greater 

continue to spread southward across waters N of 23N between 118W

and 135W with peak seas around 18 ft near 30N. This swell will 

continue to propagate as far south as 22N by this afternoon. Wave

periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine 

conditions will occur with these seas over the open waters, and 

also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely resulting in 

dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your 

national weather service for more details on conditions near the 

coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on

this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near

06N77W to 03N84W. The ITCZ continues from 03N84W to 06N94W to

06N111W, then resumes from 05N113W to 04N138W. A southern ITCZ 

extends from 03.4S96W to 00N98W. No significant convection is

noted.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to

around 26N116W. Strong W winds are N of 30N in the northern Gulf

of California, along with seas to 7 ft. Moderate SE winds are 

across the remainder of the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 

4 ft. Fresh winds are behind the front from Punta Eugenia 

northward. Large NW swell as described above with seas of 8 to 14

ft is propagating into the Baja California Norte waters. Gentle 

to moderate winds under a weak ridge prevail across the remainder

of the offshore waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell.



For the forecast, the cold front and subsequent surface troughs 

will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of

California through Mon, bringing fresh to strong winds and large

NW swell. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer 

offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. The 

swell will very gradually decay through early next week. Ridging 

will build in behind the front/troughs with fresh to strong 

winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Mon night through Wed. 

Similar winds may develop in the central and southern Gulf of 

California Tue night through Wed night. Looking ahead, fresh to 

strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California 

Thu night. Also, near gale force northerly winds may develop in 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through Thu night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to locally strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 

Papagayo, with fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and near 

the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. 

Seas are 4 to 7 ft from Panama northward, and 3 to 5 ft 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the 

Papagayo region through this morning, then moderate to fresh 

through Tue morning. Seas will occasionally build to 8 ft there

through this evening. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of 

Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through early Tue. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Please read the Special Features section for details on a

significant northerly swell over the northern waters.



A cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending 

from 26N115W to 30N135W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N 

between 120W and 136W. Associated significant NW-N swell 

continues to outrun the front as described above. Elsewhere 

across waters N of the ITCZ, the weather is dominated by a 

weakening high pressure centered N of the region. Gentle to 

moderate trades prevail across the open waters away from the 

front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A 1011 mb low pressure area 

is along a trough, embedded in the ITCZ near 06N112W. Associated 

conveciton has diminished somewhat.



For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and 

associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will 

continue to weaken and drift south through today, leading to 

weak tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the ridge

will rebuild early this week, freshening trades. Trades may 

further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of the week. 

The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 

ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early this 

week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week.

 

$$

Konarik