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AXNT20 KNHC 012249

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2130 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:  A cold front will enter the 

NW Gulf of Mexico Tue morning and extend from the Florida 

Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed morning. Gale force NW winds

associated with the front are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico 

beginning Tue night and ending Wed morning. Seas will build 8 to 

10 ft in the area of these winds by Wed morning. As the cold 

front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW 

Gulf Wed night.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ 

extends from 07N14W to 00N20W to 00S25W. Scattered moderate 

convection associated with this trough is from 00S to 03N between

25W and 30W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A 1023 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and 

Hispaniola extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure 

gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico supports 

fresh S winds across the western Gulf, and a pulse of strong E 

winds just off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in 

the western Gulf are 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern basin, moderate 

winds or less and slight seas continue. The combination of dense 

fog due to persistent southerly flow and smoke from agricultural 

fires is lowering visibility over much of the western Gulf. 



For the forecast, high pressure will begin to shift eastward 

tonight as a cold front moves across eastern Texas. The front will

enter the western Gulf Tue morning, reach from the Florida 

panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, then move southeast of the 

area late Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building 

seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Winds and seas will

decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of 

the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through sat night

allowing for fresh to strong east to southeast winds to develop 

over the western and central Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The basin is influenced by a 1023 mb high pressure system 

centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient 

between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South 

America supports strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in

the south-central Caribbean. These winds support seas of 7 to 10 

ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft are 

found in the north-central and northwest Caribbean, including the 

Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate winds and moderate 

seas prevail elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support 

pulsing of fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage

and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue. Strong 

trade winds producing seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia 

through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will subside starting 

Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward well away from the area. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1023 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and 

Hispaniola dominates the SW Atlantic. To the east, a cold front 

extends from 31N27W to 21N42W. No significant convection is 

associated with this boundary. Fresh southerly winds are evident 

north of 27N and east of the cold front to 20W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft

in NW swell remain behind the cold front, north of 20N between 

40W and 60W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in northerly swell are also ahead 

of the front north of 20N and mostly east of 30W. 



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will 

begin to shift eastward late Tue as a strong cold front approaches

from the W. The cold front will move off the coast of Florida 

Wed, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, from near 31N65W

to east- central Cuba early Fri and from near 31N62W to 

Hispaniola by late Sat. Increasing winds and building seas will be

both ahead and behind this front, mainly N of 25N. Brief gusts to

gale force are possible ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous

showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. There 

is a possibility of some of this activity being strong to severe. 

High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the 

front.



$$

Konarik