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AXNT20 KNHC 221759

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front has moved off 

northern Florida with a squall line containing numerous showers 

and scattered thunderstorms ahead of it. The front extends from 

31N76W to near Jupiter, Florida. Fresh to strong winds and building

seas are occurring ahead and behind the front, mainly N of 27N, 

increasing to gale speeds N of 29N late this afternoon and spreading

eastward through tonight. Winds will diminish below gale late 

tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. The 

front will reach from 31N73W to near Miami, Florida this evening, 

from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then 

stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks

and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. The remnant trough is forecast

to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly tranquil 

conditions for the end of the week. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through 08N12W and extends southwestward

to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 02N30W to 01S45W. 

Scattered moderate convection is within 280 nm of the ITCZ.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends west about 200 nm offshore Naples, Florida 

where it transitions to a stationary boundary and extends SW to 

just N of Veracruz, Mexico. Possible thunderstorms continue 

along the boundary. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are 

behind the front to 28N, as noted in recent scatterometer and 

altimeter observations. Light and variable winds are ahead of 

the front, with 2 to 4 ft seas. 



For the forecast,The front will push SE of the basin by this 

evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure will 

dominate in the wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will 

increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens,

which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near

the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



High pressure N of the basin is supporting moderate to fresh

trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to

moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW 

Caribbean, 3 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft in 

the eastern Caribbean.



For the forecast, the broad high pressure north of the area will 

sustain moderate to locally fresh trades across the central and 

eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of Colombia and

near the Gulf of Venezuela at times. Mainly gentle to moderate 

trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from 

the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central 

Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into the 

Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a brief period of 

active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the 

basin.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special features section for information on gale 

conditions expected across the NW waters, associated with a cold

front.



Ahead of the cold front mentioned in the special features 

section, a ridge extends from 31N52W to near the northern 

Bahamas. A trough intercepts the ridge near 22N61W to the Northern

Coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to 

fresh winds are associated with this feature south of 20N to the 

Caribbean Islands.



To the E, low pressure is near 30N30W. A second area of low 

pressure with associated gale conditions is north of the area 

near 32N32W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas 

are north of 28N and east of 40W. A cold front extends from the 

low in our area to 25N31W and to 20N40W. Moderate to fresh winds 

and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front south of 28N. 



For the forecast west of 55W, please see the special features 

section above. 



$$

Mora