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AXPQ20 PGUM 221906

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

506 AM ChST Tue Apr 23 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...

A trade wind trough stretches from well south of Yap at 4N137E to

east of the Marianas, ending at 16N151E. Fairly widespread

convection is associated with this feature until you reach 9N,

becoming just a few light showers north of there due to weak 

surface convergence.



Another trough extends from well south of Chuuk at 3N151E to just

short of Pohnpei at 6N157E. Here too, good surface convergence is

fueling widespread convection.



A third surface trough extends from south of Kosrae at 3N164E to 

just southeast of Majuro at 6N173E. Again, good surface 

convergence is leading to widespread convection, with this area 

also receiving a boost for parcel ascent via 20 to 30 knots of 

divergence in the 0-8km layer.



...DISCUSSION...

Overall, not much has changed to the forecast as things are 

"playing out" as forecast. In short, what looks like a 

developing/fragmented ITCZ- like is trying to form with the 

convection noted along the troughs mentioned above, while 

extending past the Date Line. Although not a true ITCZ (as all 

convection is mainly tied to the troughs themselves), it's on par 

with numerical forecasts which shows things getting more 

convective active in terms of coverage and vigor, initally between

3N and 6N as currently seen, while expanding northward, or 

lifting northward some by the weekend.



$$



Doll