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AXNT20 KNHC 021630

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1610 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from High

Island, TX to South Padre Island, TX. The front will reach from 

near Apalachicola, FL to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed. 

Behind the front, gale force NW winds are expected offshore 

Veracruz, Mexico beginning late tonight and ending early Wed 

morning. Seas will build to 10 ft in the area of these winds by 

early Wed morning. As the cold front exits the basin, marine 

conditions will improve in the SW Gulf Wed night.



West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the

northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon and reach from near 31N72W

to the NW Bahamas early Thu. In advance of the front, gale force S

to SW winds are expected Wed afternoon through Wed evening N of

30N between 75W and 80W with seas to 12 ft.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on

both Gale Warnings.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends 

from 03N16W to 01S21W to 02S32W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted south of 04N and east of 35W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends from High Island, TX to South Padre Island,

TX. A surface trough extends from 29N91W to 1005 mb low pressure

near 27N95.5W to 23N97W to 18N94W. Fresh N winds have moved in

behind the front along the coast of Texas. From the SE Gulf to the

central Gulf, fresh to locally strong SSE winds are occurring.

Gentle winds are present in between the surface trough and front.

Seas are 4 to 8 ft across the basin west of 85W. East of 85W, 

seas are 2 to 5 ft.



For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the

Atlantic across the region will continue to shift eastward today 

as a late season cold front moves across the western Gulf. The 

front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of 

Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the northeast Yucatan 

Peninsula Wed evening and to just southeast of the Gulf early Thu.

Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale force

offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong 

winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly 

severe, may impact the north-central Gulf late tonight and the

eastern Gulf Wed. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as

high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure 

will shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for fresh

to strong east to southeast winds to develop over the western and

central Gulf through Sat night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The basin is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system centered

between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient between 

the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures along the N coast of

Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades across most of the 

basin, except for strong near the coast of Colombia and in the 

Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across much of the Caribbean,

except 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 7 ft in the

Gulf of Honduras, and 2 to 5 ft between Jamaica and Cuba.



For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure north of the

region and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will allow for 

strong to near gale force northeast winds off the coast of 

Colombia through early Wed. These winds will resume pulsing 

starting Wed night, but become more steady beginning Fri and 

through Sat night.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The western Atlantic is dominated by ridging, anchored by a 1021

mb high pressure centered near 26N65W. The ridge axis extends from 

Ft. Pierce, FL to the high pressure center to 25N50W to 27N35W to

31N22W. Light to gentle anti-cyclonic winds are near the ridge 

axis. A cold front extends from 31N20N to 29N26W, then stationary 

front to 25N38W. A surface trough continues SW to 16N48W. A 1021 

mb high pressure is centered near 25N25W.



Winds are moderate or weaker across most of the basin. Fresh SW 

to W winds are found north of 29N between 35W and 65W, with strong

winds north of 30N between 52W and 61W. Fresh N to NE winds are

also found in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of

Africa. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 26N between 30W and 60W. Seas

are less than 8 ft elsewhere.



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will 

shift eastward through tonight as a strong cold front approaches 

from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida 

coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and 

to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu 

evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late 

Sat. A gale warning is in effect for southerly winds increasing to

gale force ahead of the front north of 30N on Wed and Wed night. 

Increasing winds and building seas are expected elsewhere ahead 

and behind the front north of 26N through Thu evening. Scattered 

showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe possibly

in a line, are expected to precede the front. Another cold front 

will sweep across the northern waters Fri through Sat night, 

followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds. 



$$

Hagen