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AXPZ20 KNHC 022103

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near

07N75W to 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 

05N95W to 06N120W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 

also observed from 07N to 10N between 117W and 122W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from the central Pacific to south of Cabo 

San Lucas. Recent ship observations along with scatterometer 

satellite passes confirm moderate to fresh NW winds over Mexican 

offshore waters north of 15N. Concurrent altimeter satellite

passes indicate lingering swell with combined seas to 8 ft off 

Baja California Sur south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo

Islands, in moderate to fresh NW to N winds. Gentle to moderate

winds and moderate combined seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the ridge from the central Pacific to south of

Cabo San Lucas will strengthen through mid week. This pattern 

will support fresh to strong NW winds funneling across the 

central Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes tonight into 

Wed. Large swell off Baja California will move into the 

Revillagigedo Islands and off Cabo Corrientes tonight and linger 

through late Wed. Farther south, strong to near- gale force winds

will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night. Looking 

ahead, expect fresh to strong westerly gap winds across the 

northern Gulf of California Thu night into Fri associated with a 

cold front moving into southern California and Baja California 

Norte. New large NW swell will accompany the front off Baja 

California late Thu through Sat night, with fresh to strong NW-N 

winds near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Mainly gentle winds prevail across the region, with 3 to 5 ft 

combined seas. Areas of smoke and haze may be limiting visibility

slightly near the coast mainly off El Salvador and Guatemala.



For the forecast, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will 

prevail through mid week, with seas building slightly Thu off 

Guatemala associated with strong gap winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh gap winds in the 

Gulf of Papagayo will diminish return Fri night and Sat night. 

Seas will build slightly offshore of Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands Sat and Sat night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Ridging dominates the waters north of 15N. The ridging combined 

with lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting a belt of fresh 

to strong trades from 10N to 20N to the west of 115W as sampled 

by a scatterometer satellite around 18 UTC. Concurrent altimeter

satellite data confirmed combined seas in this area are 8 to 11 

ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere west of 110W along

with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail 

east of 110W.



For the forecast, the belt of fresh to strong trades just north 

of the ITCZ and west of 120W will persist through the week, 

diminishing somewhat this weekend as the ridge north of the area

weakens. The fresh to strong trades will support 7 to 11 ft 

seas. A decaying cold front or remnant trough may move into the 

waters north of 25N and west of 130W by mid- week with fresh to 

strong winds behind it. A set of NW swell will arrive with the 

boundary, building seas to 8 to 12 ft north of 20N and west of 

130W through the end of the week. Looking ahead, additional 

northerly swell may drop south of 30N by the end of the week 

into the weekend, with the potential to build seas to greater 

than 12 ft north of 25N and east of 130W.

 

$$

Christensen