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AXNT20 KNHC 022214

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Sabine

Pass, Louisiana to 1007 mb low pressure centered near 28N95W near

Tampico, Mexico. The front will reach from near Apalachicola, FL 

to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed. Behind the front, gale 

force NW winds are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico beginning 

late tonight and ending early Wed morning. Seas will build to 10 

ft in the area of these winds by early Wed morning. As the cold 

front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW 

Gulf Wed night.



West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the

northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon and reach from near 31N72W

to the NW Bahamas early Thu. In advance of the front, gale force S

to SW winds are expected Wed afternoon through Wed evening N of

30N between 75W and 80W with seas to 12 ft.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on

both Gale Warnings.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends 

from 03N15W to 01S21W to 02S32W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 20W and 30W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends from the Sabine Pass, Louisiana to 1007 mb 

low pressure centered near 28N95W near Tampico, Mexico. A surface 

trough extends from 25N95W to 1006 mb low pressure near 21N96W to

23N97W to 18N94W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas follow

the front off the coast of the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. 

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are evident ahead of the front 

over the remainder of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong SE 

winds near the Yucatan Channel. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft east 

of the front 



For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the 

Atlantic across the region will continue to shift eastward tonight

as the late season cold front moves across the western Gulf. The 

front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of 

Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the northeast Yucatan 

Peninsula Wed evening and to just southeast of the Gulf early Thu.

Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale force

offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong 

winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly 

severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will 

decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of 

the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end 

of the week allowing for fresh to strong east to southeast winds 

to develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The basin is dominated by a 1020 mb high pressure system centered

between Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient 

between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure along the 

north coast of Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades across 

most of the basin, except for strong near the coast of Colombia 

and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across much of the

Caribbean, except 6 to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 

7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 2 to 5 ft between Jamaica and 

Cuba.



For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure north of the

region and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will allow for

strong to near gale force northeast winds off the coast of

Colombia through early Wed. These winds will resume pulsing

starting Wed night, but become more steady beginning Fri and

through Sun night.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters north of 20N,

anchored by two 1020 mb high pressure areas near 25N25W and

25N62W, split by a weakening stationary front reaching from near

Madeira Island to 16N50W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough

seas are evident between the ridge and an approaching cold front

moving through Bermuda, specifically north of 29N between 35W and

65W. Fresh E winds are funneling along the north coast of

Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere, with 4

to 6 ft combined seas.



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will 

shift eastward through tonight as a strong cold front approaches 

from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida 

coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and 

to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu 

evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late 

Sat. Gale force southerly are expected ahead of the front north of

30N Wed and Wed night. Increasing winds and building seas are 

expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through

Thu evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to 

isolated severe possibly in a line, are expected to precede the 

front. A couple of cold fronts will sweep across the northern 

waters Fri through Sun



$$

Christensen