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AXPZ20 KNHC 030107

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near

08N82W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 04N104W to 

07N124W to 01N140W. Another ITCZ extends from 03.4S108W to

02N111W to 03.4S117W to 01S120W. Scattered moderate isolated 

strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 110W and 

130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A NW to SE ridge extends across the offshore waters. Fresh to

strong NW winds have developed from the central through southern

Gulf of California to near and S of Cabo Corrientes due to a

tight pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower

pressures than normal over central Mexico. Moderate to fresh

winds prevail elsewhere NW-N of Michoacan along with 6 to 8 ft

seas in decaying NW swell, with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to

7 ft seas elsewhere, locally fresh nearshore of Oaxaca.

 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to 

strong NW winds funneling across the central Gulf of California 

and off Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed night. NW swell off 

Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands and off Cabo 

Corrientes will gradually subside through Wed night. Farther 

south, strong to near-gale force winds will pulse across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed evening through Thu, and Thu night

through Fri. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong westerly gap 

winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu night into Fri 

associated with a cold front moving into southern California and 

Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds will filter in

behind the front in the central and southern Gulf for the start

of the weekend. New, large NW swell may accompany the front off 

Baja California late Thu through Sat night, with fresh to strong 

NW-N winds near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, with 3 

to 5 ft combined seas in primarily S-SW swell. Areas of smoke 

and haze may be limiting visibility slightly near the coast 

mainly off El Salvador and Guatemala.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region

may develop Fri through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, light to

gentle winds will prevail for the next several days. Seas may

build offshore Guatemala Thu and Thu night due to a Gulf of 

Tehuantepec gap wind event. Otherwise, 3 to 5 ft seas will 

prevail through the next several days, except building slight 

from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Island by the end of the 

week in new southerly swell.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The ridging 

combined with lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting a belt 

of fresh to strong trades from 10N to 20N to the west of 110W.

Combined seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft aided by old northerly

swell. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere over

the open waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere W of 105W, and 4 to

6 ft E of 105W.



For the forecast, the belt of fresh to strong trades just north 

of the ITCZ will persist through the week, diminishing somewhat

thereafter as the ridge weakens. The fresh to strong trades will

support 7 to 11 ft seas. A decaying cold front or remnant trough

may move into the waters north of 25N and west of 130W by mid- 

week with fresh to strong winds behind it. A set of NW swell will

arrive with the boundary, building seas to 8 to 12 ft north of 

20N and west of 130W through the end of the week. Looking ahead, 

additional northerly swell may drop south of 30N by the end of 

the week into the weekend, with the potential to build seas to 

greater than 12 ft north of 25N and east of 130W.

 

$$

Lewitsky