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AXPZ20 KNHC 032154

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2130 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from the coast of E Panama near 09N79W 

to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 02n125W. Scattered 

moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-11N

between 115W-132W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A NW to SE ridge extends from 30N129W to 20N110W to 12N100W. 

Fresh to strong NW winds spread from the central through S Gulf 

of California to near Cabo Corrientes due to a tight pressure 

gradient between the ridge and a trough along the NW coast of 

mainland Mexico. Seas near Cabo Corrientes are 7-8 ft, 3-6 ft in

the central and S Gulf of California, and 1-2 ft in the N Gulf 

of California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 

are 4-7 ft.

 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to 

strong NW winds funneling across the central Gulf of California 

and off Cabo Corrientes tonight. Farther south, strong to near- 

gale force winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this 

evening through Thu afternoon, and again late Thu night through 

Fri afternoon. Expect fresh to strong W gap winds across the N 

Gulf of California Thu night into Fri associated with a cold 

front moving into S California and Baja California Norte. W to NW

winds may be near gale-force north of 29N Fri night. Fresh to 

strong NW winds will filter in behind the front in the central 

and S Gulf of California on Sat with fresh to strong NW-N winds 

developing near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning 

Fri night through the weekend. Very large NW swell should 

accompany the front off Baja California Thu night through Fri 

night, gradually diminishing on Sat and Sun.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters with 3-5 

ft. 



For the forecast, winds and seas should remain tranquil for the 

next several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific

waters.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A NW to SE ridge extends from 30N129W to 20N110W to 12N100W.  

The ridging combined with lower pressures near the ITCZ is 

supporting a belt of fresh to strong trades from around 07N-18N 

and west of 118W. Combined seas in this area are 8-11 ft aided 

by old N swell. A weak cold front has reached our NW corner and

is located from 30N135W to 29N140W. Winds behind the front are

NE fresh to strong with seas 7-9 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate 

trades prevail elsewhere over the open waters with seas are 6-7

ft.



For the forecast, the weak cold front will reach from N Baja 

California to 21N140W by Fri morning. Fresh to strong NE winds 

behind the front will occur tonight and tomorrow before 

diminishing Fri. As the front pushes southeastward into our 

waters, this will reduce the N-S pressure gradient and diminish 

the extent of the fresh to strong trades, which will continue 

through the weekend. A very large NW swell will cross our N 

border Thu night and continue advecting southeastward. The swell 

will gradually decay through the weekend, reaching the Islas

Revillagigedo by Sun.

 

$$

Landsea