####018005953####
AXNT20 KNHC 032334

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...



A strong cold front just inland the Georgia and northeast Florida

coasts will enter the far northwest waters this evening. It will 

reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early

Thu, from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba 

Thu evening, then across the eastern forecast waters through late 

Sat night. Gale-force southerly winds E of the front north of 30N 

between 74W and 77W will diminish late tonight. Seas will build to

a peak of around 12 ft tonight and early Thu. 



Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the

National Hurricane Center at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on

the Gale Warning.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W

to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the Equator and 40W.

Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted south 

of 04N east of 21W.

 

...GULF OF MEXICO...



As of 2100 UTC, a strong - for April - cold front extends from 

the Big Bend area of Florida near 30N83W southwestward to the

Yucatan coast near 21N90W. A squall line extends from the Florida

peninsula at 27N82W to 25N86W. Winds outside of the vicinity of

the squall line ahead of the front are SW moderate to fresh with

seas 3-5 ft. Winds behind the front are N fresh to strong south of

25N with seas 7-10 ft and NW moderate to fresh north of 25N with

seas 5-7 ft.



For the forecast, the front will reach from South Florida to the 

northeast Yucatan Peninsula this evening and to just southeast of 

the Gulf early on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the 

front while fresh to strong southerly winds will precede it. 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will precede the front along a 

squall line. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high 

pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will 

shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for mostly 

fresh east to southeast winds to develop over the western and 

central Gulf through Sat night, then diminish Sun. Fresh to strong

southeast winds then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A weak Bermuda High to the north of the Caribbean is forcing only

gentle to moderate E trades east of 77W. Winds are SE moderate to

fresh in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Caribbean.

No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon.



For the forecast, mostly strong, to at times, near gale-force 

northeast winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at night 

through Sun night. The tail of a cold front will move into the 

northwestern Caribbean Thu morning, reach from central Cuba 

southwestward to the vicinity of northern Belize by Thu evening, 

then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to near 

18N85W by Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow

in behind the front through Thu evening.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the

Gale-Force Wind Warning that has started. 



Aside from the SW gale east of N Florida, the most significant

weather is associated with a cold front that extends from 31N40W

to 29N50W to 31N53W. Winds are WSW fresh to strong east of the

front north of 29N. Very large NW swell is occurring in 

connection with this front with peak seas of 14 ft near 31N40W and

8 ft or greater seas north of 27N between 30W-57W. No significant

convection is occurring in association with the front. To the

southeast, a long trough extends from 30N29W to 14N59W. While no

notable winds are associated with the trough, scattered showers

are occurring within 60 NM of the trough north of 20N. Elsewhere,

the Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high centered hear 24N53W

with ridging extending westward to 25N77W and eastward to 24N40W.

Within 180 NM of the West African coast north of 15N, winds are N

to NE fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. Winds over the remainder

of the Atlantic gentle to moderate with seas 3-6 ft.



For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front just inland the

Georgia and northeast Florida coasts will enter the far northwest

waters this evening. It will reach from near 31N73W to the NW 

Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N68W to the 

central Bahamas and to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the 

eastern forecast waters through late Sat night. Gale-force 

southerly winds E of the front north of 30N between 74W and 77W 

will diminish late tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds 

elsewhere E of the front N of about 27N will diminish Thu night 

while fresh to strong west winds will follow the front N of 29N. 

Rough seas on either side of the front N of 27N will shift to E of

70W during the upcoming weekend and into early next week. 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are over the

waters N of 27N and W of 75W. This activity will continue to 

shift eastward through Thu. Another cold front will quickly move 

across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming weekend, 

followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds N of 27N.



$$

Landsea/Aguirre