####018005669####
AXPZ20 KNHC 040606

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Significant northerly swell event: A set of large NW swell is

forecast to propagate SE of 30N late tonight through Fri night, 

with seas of 12 ft or greater covering the waters N of 24N and E 

of 135W. Seas will peak around 16 ft along 30N between 120W and 

130W late Fri morning into the afternoon. Wave periods will be 

mainly 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous seas are expected during 

this event, with dangerous conditions possible along the Baja 

California Norte coast Fri night through the weekend. Refer to 

your local national weather service for more details on surf 

conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 

the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 

KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details

on this significant northerly swell event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from the coast of W Panama near 07N81W 

to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 06N110W to 05N125W to 

02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 

observed from from 07N to 10N between 117W and 122W, and from 04N

to 07N between 135W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an

upcoming significant northerly swell event.



A NW to SE ridge extends along the outer offshore waters

boundary. Fresh to strong NW winds are in the central Gulf of 

California due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and

a trough along the NW coast of mainland Mexico. Winds elsewhere 

N of 18N are moderate to fresh with seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW 

swell. Fresh to near gale-force N winds have developed in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec with locally higher gusts possible per recent

ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas 7 to 10 ft there. Mainly 

light to gentle winds are elsewhere S of 18N along with 4 to 7 ft

seas.

 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to 

strong NW winds funneling across the central Gulf of California 

for the next few hours before diminishing. Farther south, strong

to near-gale force winds will pulse across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec through this afternoon, and again late tonight 

through Fri afternoon. Expect fresh to strong W gap winds across 

the N Gulf of California tonight into Fri associated with a cold

front moving into S California and Baja California Norte. W to 

NW winds may be near gale-force north of 29N Fri night. Fresh to 

strong NW winds will filter in behind the front in the central 

and S Gulf of California on Sat with fresh to strong NW-N winds 

developing near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning 

Fri night through the weekend. Very large NW swell should 

accompany the front off Baja California tonight through Fri 

night, gradually subsiding on Sat and Sun. A reinforcing set of 

NW swell may impact the Baja California waters early next week.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, locally

moderate near Guatemala, along with 3 to 5 ft. 



For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next 

several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific 

waters, except pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo 

region Fri through early next week. Seas will be mainly 3 to 5

ft, building offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri night

through early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an

upcoming significant northerly swell event.



A weak cold front is over the NW waters extending from from

30N130W to 26N140W. Otherwise, a NW to SE ridge dominates the 

waters N of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong winds are behind the front,

as well as from 06N to 20N to the W of 130W. Moderate to fresh 

winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with gentle to 

moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. NE swell

of 8 to 11 ft are building in behind the front, while similar 

seas are across the waters from 03N to 20N to the W of 115W due 

to the trade winds combining with old, remnant northerly swell. 

Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.



For the forecast, the weak cold front will gradually dissipate as

it reaches Baja California reach from N Baja California tonight.

Fresh to strong NE winds behind the front will occur through

tonight diminishing Fri. As the front pushes southeastward into 

our waters, this will reduce the N-S pressure gradient and 

diminish the extent of the fresh to strong trades, which will 

continue through the weekend. As mentioned above, a very large 

NW swell will cross our N border tonight and continue advecting 

southeastward. The swell will gradually decay through the 

weekend, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun. Overall 

conditions should improve somewhat early next week.

 

$$

Lewitsky