####018005855#### AXPZ20 KNHC 041605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant northerly swell event: An extensive set of large northwest swell is forecast to propagate SE of 30N late tonight through Fri night, with seas of 12 ft or greater covering the waters north of 24N and east of 135W. Seas will peak to around 15 ft along 30N between 120W and 130W from about late Fri morning into the afternoon. Wave periods will be mainly 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous seas are expected during this event, with dangerous conditions possible along the Baja California Norte coast Fri night through the weekend. Refer to your local national weather service for more details on surf conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this significant northerly swell event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from along the coast of northwest Colombia southwestward to across southern Costa Rica, then to 08N79W and to 06N89W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N98W to 06N107W and to 05N122W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen north of the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 115W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 81W and 87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A northwest to southeast oriented high pressure ridge is over the outer offshore waters boundary. Winds offshore Baja California are moderate to fresh, northwest to north in direction, along with seas of 4 and 6 ft. Strong to near gale- force north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as noted in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas there are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Mostly light to gentle winds are elsewhere S of 18N along with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, the strong to near- gale force winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon, and again late tonight through Fri afternoon. Expect fresh to strong W gap winds across the N Gulf of California tonight into Fri associated with a cold front that will be moving through southern California and Baja California Norte. West to northwest winds may be near gale-force north of 29N Fri night. Fresh to strong NW winds will filter in behind the front in the central and southern Gulf of California on Sat with fresh to strong NW-N winds developing near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning Fri night through the weekend. Very large northwest is expected to accompany the front off Baja California tonight through Fri night, gradually subsiding on Sat and Sun. A reinforcing set of northwest swell may impact the Baja California waters early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, locally moderate near Guatemala, along with 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific waters, except pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region Fri through early next week. Seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will build slightly Fri night through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A stationary front extends from southern California southwestward to 30N124W to 29N130W, then transitions to a trough to near 27N140W. Otherwise, a northwest to southeast oriented high pressure ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong winds are behind the front, as well as from 06N to 20N to the W of 130W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Northwest swell is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft behind the front, while similar seas are across the waters from the equator to 20N and west of about 115W due to the trade winds combining with old, remnant northerly swell. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the weak cold front will gradually dissipate as it reaches Baja California reach from N Baja California tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will occur through tonight diminishing Fri. As the front pushes southeastward into our waters, this will reduce the N-S pressure gradient and diminish the extent of the fresh to strong trades, which will continue through the weekend. As mentioned above, an extensive set of very large northwest swell will propagate through the northern waters tonight, and continue advecting southeastward. The swell will gradually decay through the weekend, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun. Overall conditions should improve somewhat during early next week. $$ Aguirre