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AXNT20 KNHC 041735

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1710 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal

near 14N17W, curving to 04N19W and the Equator along 29W. The ITCZ

continues from the Equator along 29W, to the Equator along 46W.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is

from 05N southward between 05W and 17W. Isolated moderate to 

locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

 

...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front passes through 31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the 

NW Bahamas, through the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan Channel 

and northern Guatemala, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern 

Mexico. A stationary front continues from southern Mexico to

25N102W. Some remnant clouds are to the south of 29N83W 26N90W

23N98W. 



Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, to the

west of the cold front. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near the

coast of Mexico near 24N97W. 



Moderate to rough seas cover the area from the NE corner toward

the SW corner. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the area.

An exception is for slight seas off the middle Texas Gulf coast.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is in the eastern half of

the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.



A cold front extending from the Florida Keys to the eastern 

Yucatan Peninsula will move SE of the Gulf this afternoon. 

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds follow the front, except for 

locally strong NW winds in the NE basin. Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms will continue to affect the Straits of Florida 

through early afternoon. Winds and seas will decrease tonight 

through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The 

high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week, 

allowing for mostly fresh E to SE winds to develop over the 

western and central Gulf through Sat night, then diminish Sun. 

Fresh to strong SE winds then develop over most of Gulf Mon and 

Mon night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A cold front passes through the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan

Channel and northern Guatemala, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of 

southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 

isolated strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm to the east of the 

front, from 17N northward from 80W westward. Moderate to fresh SE

to S winds are to the southeast of the front. Fresh NW winds are

to the north and northwest of the cold front. Moderate seas cover

much of the area in the open waters of the Caribbean Sea. An 

exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters areas of

from NW Colombia to Central America, and for Cuba along 80W.



A surface ridge passes through a 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean 24N51W high

pressure center, to 21N73W between the SE Bahamas and Haiti.



A late season cold front is moving across the Yucatan Channel and

into the NW Caribbean this morning, and is expected to reach from

central Cuba SW to the vicinity of northern Belize by this 

evening, then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to 

near 18N85W by Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 

follow in behind the front affecting mainly the waters from the 

Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through early Fri. Fresh

to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at night 

through the forecast period, increasing in areal coverage and 

reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high pressure builds 

N of the area in the wake of the front. Surface high pressure N of

the area will also support the development of fresh to strong NE 

winds in the Windward Passage Sun evening through early Wed. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front passes through 31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the 

NW Bahamas, through the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan Channel 

and northern Guatemala, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern 

Mexico. Earlier gale-force winds that were associated with this 

front during the last 24 hours or so have slowed down to less than

gale-force. Moderate to rough seas are from the cold front

northward and northwestward. Slight seas are between 70W and the

cold front. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are to the

north of 31N63W 27N69W 25N74W, to the east of the cold front.

Fresh to strong, and some near gale-force NW winds are from 29N

northward to the northwest of the cold front. Precipitation: 

widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to 

180 nm to the east of the entire front. The 24-hour rainfall 

totals in inches, for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC, are: 

0.18 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan 

American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.



A surface ridge passes through 31N16W, to a 1018 mb high pressure

center that is near 27N22W, to 24N37W, to a 1020 mb high pressure

center is near 24N51W, to 21N73W between the SE Bahamas and 

Haiti. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic 

Ocean from the 31N73W-to-Florida Keys cold front eastward. A 

frontal boundary is along 32N between 40W and 60W. Strong to near

gale-force SW to W winds are from 29N northward between 35W and 

49W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are from 25N to 29N between

35W and 49W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the

Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 26N northward between 27W and

40W. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N to 27N from 26W eastward.

Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.



Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N southward between 30W and

60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere between 60W

and 73W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N to 26N from 26W

eastward. Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward between 20W and

35W. 



A cold front extending from 31N73W to the Florida Keys will reach

from Bermuda to central Cuba by this evening, from near 31N62W to

the Turks and Caicos Fri evening, then across the E and SE 

forecast waters through Mon. Winds to near gale-force will 

continue on both sides of the front north of 30N before 

diminishing early this afternoon. Strong winds and rough seas on 

either side of the front N of 27N will gradually diminish during 

the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Scattered heavy 

showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over the waters 

NE of Freeport and will continue to shift eastward today. A 

reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late

Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by fresh to 

strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will develop off the 

coast of Georgia on Mon and associated ridging will support 

moderate to fresh winds in the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean

approaches.



$$

mt/ss