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AXNT20 KNHC 042343

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Fri Apr 05 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2330 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of 

Senegal near 14N17W, extending southwestward to 04N19W and

along the Equator to near 29W, where latest scatterometer data 

indicates that the ITCZ begins and continues along the Equator 

to near 46W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong 

convection is well to the south of the trough from the Equator 

to near 05N and between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate 

convection is just south of the trough between 21W and 25W.

 

...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front has recently cleared the Gulf. It extends from far 

western Cuba southwestward to Honduras. High pressure is 

building eastward across the area. A 1020 mb high center is 

analyzed just south of Tampico, Mexico. The gradient from the 

high pressure is allowing for gentle to moderate northerly winds 

to be over the central and eastern sections of the Gulf, except 

for light variable winds in the SW Gulf and for gentle west winds

in the NW Gulf. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and 

recent buoy observations indicate mostly moderate seas across the

basin, except for slight seas offshore southwestern Louisiana to

the middle and upper Texas coast.



Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly low and mid- 

level clouds near the cold front. Isolated showers and rain 

patches are possible with these clouds.



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to

pull farther away from the area through Fri. Winds and seas will

decrease tonight through Fri as high pressure continues to

build across the region. The high pressure will shift eastward 

through the end of the week, allowing for mostly fresh east to

southeast winds to develop over the western and central Gulf 

through Sat night, then diminish Sun. Fresh to strong southeast 

winds are forecast to develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon 

night.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The cold front that recently moved through the Gulf of Mexico

is now along a position from far western Cuba southwestward to

Honduras. The western periphery of central Atlantic high 

pressure extends west-southwestward to the northern Leeward 

Islands. Satellite imagery reveals broken low and mid-level 

clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms along and near 

the front. Patches of rain and isolated showers are over western 

Cuba. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate gentle to 

moderate southerly winds to the east and southeast of the front, 

reaching to near 80W. Moderate to fresh north winds are west of 

the front along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The latest ASCAT 

satellite data passes generally show gentle to moderate trade 

winds east of 80W, except for fresh trade winds south of 15N 

east of 68W, and light variable winds south of 11N west of 80W. 

Moderate seas are the majority of the sea state, except for 

slight seas in the southwestern Caribbean and north of 15N west 

of 68W, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. 



For the forecast, the previously mentioned front is expected to 

reach from central Cuba southwestward to the Gulf of Honduras Fri

morning, then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to

the Mexican coast along 19N on Sat. High pressure behind the 

front will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle 

Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly 

winds will follow in behind the front affecting mainly the waters

from the Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through Fri 

morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of 

Colombia at night Sun night through Wed night, expanding in areal

coverage and reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high 

pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE winds in the 

Windward Passage Mon evening through early Thu. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A late season cold front is analyzed from near 31N69W 

southwestward to the central Bahamas and to far western Cuba. 

Visible satellite imagery clearly depicts a nearly linear rope 

cloud feature that denotes the leading edge of the frontal 

boundary. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with possible 

patches of moderate rain along with embedded scattered showers 

and isolated thunderstorms are within about 100 nm northwest of 

the frontal boundary north of 27N. Broken to scattered 

multilayer clouds are seen within 120 nm northwest of the 

frontal boundary south of 27N. Isolated showers may be possible 

with these clouds. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate 

strong to near gale-force south to southwest winds north of 27N 

and east of the frontal boundary to near 62W. Gale-force 

southwest winds are just north of the area between 65W and 69W. 

Fresh to strong west winds are west of the front north of 29N, 

and moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are west of the 

front south of 29N. Moderate to rough seas are northwest of the 

cold front. Slight seas are between 70W and the cold front. 



To the east of the cold front, a broad area of high pressure, 

anchored by a 1020 mb high near 23N51W, is the main feature 

influencing the wind regime in the central and eastern Atlantic 

sections. A cold front is seen along a position from near 31N39W 

to 30N44W, then as a stationary front to 32N54W, where it 

transitions to a warm front continuing well to the north of the 

area. An ASCAT satellite data pass shows strong to near gale-

force southwest to west winds north of 28N and between 30W and 

43W. Seas with these winds are in the 10 to 13 ft range. The 

ASCAT satellite data pass also shows moderate to fresh southwest 

to west winds from 25N to 28N between 24W and 48W. Moderate or 

weaker winds are over the rest of the Atlantic basin. Rough seas 

are present north of 26N between 27W and 40W. Moderate to rough 

seas are from 17N to 26N between 27W and 40W and also north of 

13N east of 27W. Moderate seas are over the remainder of the 

Atlantic. The gradient between the high pressure and relatively 

lower pressures found in the tropical and sub-tropical zones is 

allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds to 

exist south of about 19N and west of 28W. Moderate to fresh 

northeast winds are from 19N to 30N and east of 28W to along the 

coast of Africa.



For the forecast W of 55W, the previously described cold front 

will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by this evening, 

from near 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri evening, then across

the eastern and southeastern forecast waters through Mon. Strong

winds and rough seas on either side of the front N of 28N will 

gradually diminish by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will quickly 

move across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming 

weekend, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds 

north of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South 

Carolina early Mon, with the associated ridge expected to support

moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the 

Caribbean approaches through Wed. 



$$

Aguirre