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AXPZ20 KNHC 051535

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri Apr 5 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Significant northerly swell event: An extensive set of large

NW swell will continue to move east of 130W reaching as far 

south as 25N overnight, with maximum wave heights near 15 ft and 

wave periods of 13 seconds to the northwest of Guadalupe Island 

off Baja California Norte. The combination of shorter period wind

waves due to fresh to strong NW winds combined with the longer

period NW swell may present hazardous marine conditions to some

vessels. Refer to your local national weather service for more 

details on the potential for rough surf conditions along the 

coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 

KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details

on this significant northerly swell event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ

continues from 05N90W to 08N110W to 06N120W, and from 02N130W to

beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N

to 07N between 82W and 84W, and from 05N to 07N between 90W and 

97W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an

upcoming significant northerly swell event.



A cold front extends from the extreme northern Gulf of 

California across Baja California Norte to south of Guadalupe

Island to 25N125W. An overnight scatterometer satellite pass

indicated at fresh to strong SW gap winds over the northern Gulf

of California and seas to 8 ft ahead of the front. In additon, 

fresh to strong NW winds follow the front off Baja California

Norte. A more recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed large 

combined seas of 8 to 14 ft follow the front, in a combination of

wind waves with longer period NW swell. Farther south, fresh to 

strong N gap winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere

across Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to

fresh to strong speeds through early this afternoon. Expect

fresh to near gale-force SW to W gap winds across the northern

Gulf of California today and tonight associated with the passage

of a cold front moving through Baja California Norte this

morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will filter in behind the

front over the central and southern Gulf of California on Sat

with fresh to strong NW to N winds developing near shore from

Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning tonight through the weekend.

Very large NW swell is expected to accompany the front off Baja

California through tonight, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by

Sat night, before gradually subsiding into Sun. Meanwhile, a 

reinforcing set of NW swell may impact the Baja California waters

north of Punta Eugenia Mon and Tue, before subsiding through

midweek. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America 

offshore waters as well as the offshore waters between Ecuador

and the Galapagos Islands. Seas over these waters are 3 to 5 ft 

due to mixed SW and NW swell. Light smoke from agricultural fires

has been noticed over coastal areas for the past several days.



For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next 

several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific 

waters, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the 

Papagayo region Sat through early next week. Seas from offshore 

Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will build slightly tonight 

through early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an

upcoming significant northerly swell event.



A cold front extends from near Punta San Carlos, Baja California

Norte to 25N125W, where it transitions to a surface trough to

25N140W. Large swell follows the front, and fresh to strong NW

winds are evident north of the front west of 130W. Combined seas

of 8 to 10 ft in a combination of ealier NW swell and wind waves

from fresh to locally strong trade wind flow are evident from 

05N to 20N west of 125W, as detected by a recent pair of

altimeter satellite passes. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 

ft seas are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, the cold front will sweep southward through 

Sat while its western segment begins to weaken. As mentioned 

above, an extensive set of very large NW swell will continue to 

propagate SE through the northern waters through tonight,

reinforcing an area of 8 to 12 ft combined seas from 05N to 20N

west of 115W. The swell will gradually decay through the early

part of the week, leaving an area of 8 to 10 ft combined seas in

the trade wind belt from 05N to 15N west of 120W by mid week.

 

$$

Christensen