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AXNT20 KNHC 051741

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Fri Apr 5 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1720 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW

Senegal, to 04N20W, crossing the Equator along 25W, to 01S28W.

The ITCZ continues from 01S28W, to 03S39W. Precipitation:

widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of

06N53W 04N40W 04N30W 07N16W 07N11W. 

 

...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front has entered the northernmost sections of the Gulf of

Mexico, along 29N/31N between 80W and East Texas. No significant

deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite

imagery. 



A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N92W. Broad surface

anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, away

from the cold front. Moderate anticyclonic winds cover much of the

area. Some exceptions are for moderate to fresh NE winds off the W

coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the NE part of the Isthmus of

Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and within 60 nm to the south of

the cold front between 86W and 90W. Slight to moderate seas cover

the area to the east of the line that runs from the Tampa Florida

coastal waters, to the south central Gulf, to the coastal waters

of the W Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the remainder of

the Gulf of Mexico. 



Weak high pressure is centered over the western Gulf near 25N92W 

this morning, behind a cold front that has become stationary 

across the NW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds across 

southern portions of the basin will decrease today as high 

pressure builds across the area. The high pressure will shift 

northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will support 

mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf 

through Sat night before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds

will then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and 

continue through Tue night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A stationary front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to 18N85W in

the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to central Honduras, and

curving into the SE Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and moderate seas, are to the 

northwest of the stationary front. Precipitation: rainshowers are

possible to the northwest of the line that runs from eastern

Honduras to the Windward Passage.



Fresh easterly winds, and moderate seas from 6 feet to 7 feet, 

are within 300 nm of Venezuela and Colombia. Broad moderate winds 

are elsewhere from Nicaragua eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere

from 80W eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere.



The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 

at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Trinidad and

in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan 

American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the SW

corner of the area, from 14N southward from 75W westward. A

surface trough, that originates in the Pacific Ocean, to the east

of the ITCZ, is along 07N80W 10N76W.



A frontal boundary has become stationary from Central Cuba to the

Gulf of Honduras along 86W. The front is expected to meander and 

gradually dissipate this weekend. High pressure behind the front 

will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic

coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh NE winds are west of 

the front, affecting mainly the waters from the Yucatan Channel to

Belize adjacent waters, and will slowly diminish this afternoon 

and tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of 

Colombia at night through Sun night. These fresh to strong winds 

will expand in areal coverage, reaching near gale- force speeds 

Mon night as high pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE 

winds to develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola 

Mon through Tue night. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front passes through 31N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to

27N70W 25N74W. The front becomes stationary at 25N74W, beyond

22N80W in Cuba, and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Mostly fresh 

westerly winds are from 29N northward from 72W westward. Fresh to 

strong southerly winds are within 240 nm to the southeast of the 

cold front. Rough seas are from 28N northward from 60W westward. 

Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W westward. Precipitation: 

isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side

of the frontal boundary.



An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N22W, to 

27N30W and 26N40W. A separate surface trough is along 30N21W 

24N30W 20N37W 16N44W. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is from

25N northward between 20W and 45W. Rough to very rough seas are

to the north of 27N40W 26N29W 24N20W. Moderate to rough seas are from

05N to 14N between 30W and 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered 

moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward from 30W 

eastward.



A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N52W. Broad surface 

anticyclonic wind flow is between the eastern Atlantic Ocean cold 

front, and the cold front/stationary front boundary.



Mostly fresh NE winds are from 22N southward between 34W and 60W.

Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic

Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.



The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 

at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda, and 0.05 in Freeport in the

Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature 

and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.



A cold front extending from 31N64W to Central Cuba along 79W will

reach from near 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba 

Sat morning, then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast 

waters Sun through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side

of the front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. A 

reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late

Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by fresh to 

strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will move off the 

coast of South Carolina early next week, with the associated ridge

expected to support moderate to fresh winds across the Great 

Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night. 



$$

mt/ss