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AXNT20 KNHC 052126

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2100 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal

near 12N16W 05N20W to 02S30W, then transitions to the ITCZ and

extends to 03S38W. No significant convection is evident north of

the Equator. 

 

...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends from the mouth of the Mississippi River to

near Clearwater, Florida. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near

27N93W. Mostly light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are

evident across the basin. 



For the forecast, weak high pressure is centered over the Gulf 

near 26N92W this afternoon, behind a cold front that has become 

stationary across the NW Caribbean. The high pressure will shift 

northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will support 

mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf 

through Sat night before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds

will then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and 

continue through early Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. 

Expect the next cold front to move into the western Gulf on Wed.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A stationary front extends from central Cuba to central Honduras.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft are evident across the

Caribbean south of 15N, with strong winds and 7 ft seas off the

Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5

ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is evident.



The stationary front is expected to gradually dissipate this 

weekend. High pressure behind the front will move from the NE Gulf

of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon 

morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of 

Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night, then will 

expand in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean Mon 

through Wed, as high pressure builds N of the area. Wind will 

reach near gale-force at night off of Colombia Mon night through 

Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to develop in the Windward 

Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon through Wed. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N61W to central Cuba, and a second,

reinforcing front extends from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral.

Fresh to strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted within 90

nm east of the eastern Front. Fresh W winds follow the western

front. Farther east, a 1018 mb high pressure area is centered 

near 25N50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are

noted south of the high pressure over the tropical Atlantic. In 

the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from Madeira Island to 

25N35W to 25N40W. Fresh NW winds 8 to 14 ft combined seas in NW

swell follow this front. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft

seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern front will reach from 

near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Sat morning, 

then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun 

through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side of the 

front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. The westernmost, 

reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late

tonight through Sun, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N 

of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina 

early next week, with the associated ridge expected to support 

moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the 

Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong 

Wed.



$$

Christensen