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AXPZ20 KNHC 060404

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Significant northerly swell event: An extensive set of large

NW swell will continue to move east of 130W reaching as far 

south as 23N overnight, with maximum wave heights near 15 ft and

wave periods of 13-14 seconds to the NW of Guadalupe Island off 

Baja California Norte. The combination of shorter period wind 

waves due to fresh to strong NW winds combined with the longer 

period NW swell may present hazardous marine conditions to some 

vessels. Refer to your local national weather service for more 

details on the potential for rough surf conditions along the 

coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 

KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details

on this significant northerly swell event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N86W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N89W to 05N105W to 05N121W, and from 03N132W to

beyond 03N140W. A surface trough breaking the ITCZ and extending

from 01N130W to 08N124W is generating scattered moderate isolated

strong convection from 00N to 11N between 115W and 136W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an

upcoming significant northerly swell event.



A cold front extends across the central Gulf of California and  

Baja California Sur SW to 25N115W. Fresh to near gale-force W to

NW gap winds are over the northern Gulf of California N of 27N

behind the front, where seas are estimated to be as high as 8 ft.

In addition, moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front off 

Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Large combined seas of 8 

to 14 ft follow the front, in a combination of wind waves with 

longer period NW swell. Light to gentle breezes are ongoing

elsewhere, except for moderate NW winds over the adjacent waters

between Jalisco and Colima. Seas are 3-5 ft across these

remainder Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, expect fresh to near gale-force W to NW gap 

winds across the northern Gulf of California through tonight 

associated with the passage of the cold front moving through 

Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong NW winds will filter in 

behind the front over the central and southern Gulf of California

on Sat with fresh to strong NW to N winds developing near shore 

from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the weekend. Very large NW

swell is expected to accompany the front off Baja California, 

reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night, before gradually

subsiding into Sun. Meanwhile, a reinforcing set of NW swell may

impact the Baja California waters north of Punta Eugenia Mon and

Tue, before subsiding through midweek. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America 

offshore waters as well as the offshore waters between Ecuador

and the Galapagos Islands. Seas over these waters are 3 to 5 ft 

due to mixed SW and NW swell. Light smoke from agricultural fires

has been noticed over coastal areas for the past several days.



For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next 

several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific 

waters, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the 

Papagayo region late Sat through early next week. Seas from 

offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will build slightly 

tonight through early next week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an

ongoing significant northerly swell event.



A cold front extends across the central Gulf of California and  

Baja California Sur SW to 25N115W. Moderate to fresh NE winds 

follow the front W of the Baja California Peninsula offshore 

waters border. Large combined seas of 8 to 14 ft also follow the

front, in a combination of wind waves with longer period NW 

swell. These winds and seas extends as far south as 25N and to

132W. A wide area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 07N

to 23N and W of 118W with 8-12 ft seas in mixed N and NE swell. 

Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, the cold front will sweep southward through 

Sat while its western segment begins to weaken. As mentioned 

above, an extensive set of very large NW swell will continue to 

propagate SE through the northern waters through tonight,

reinforcing an area of 8 to 12 ft combined seas from 07N to 23N 

west of 118W. The swell will gradually decay through the early 

part of the week, leaving an area of 8 to 10 ft combined seas in 

the trade wind belt from 05N to 15N west of 120W by mid week.

 

$$

Ramos