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AXNT20 KNHC 061629

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1620 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal

and The Gambia near 13N16W, continuing to 02S31W. The ITCZ 

continues from 02S31W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is

noted from 01N to 06N between 23W and 29W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, even as a weak 

cold front moves through the NE waters. The cold front currently

extends from Tampa Bay, FL to New Orleans, LA, and is followed by

gentle to moderate NE to E winds. Across the rest of the waters, 

gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. Seas 4-6 ft in the W Gulf 

have been confirmed by buoy observations this morning. Elsewhere,

seas are 2-4 ft.



For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will 

shift northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will 

support mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central 

Gulf through tonight before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong winds

will pulse off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula 

tonight and Sun night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over 

most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and become SE to S through Wed, 

ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect this next cold front to

move into the western Gulf on Wed. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the Central Caribbean,

increasing to locally strong speeds near the coast of Colombia in

the south-central Caribbean. As a result of these winds, seas are

6-8 ft across the south-central waters. In the SW and E 

Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with seas of 4-6 ft. In 

the NW Caribbean, winds are light with 2-4 ft seas. Scattered

moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 12N

west of 80W. A dissipating stationary front in the NW Caribbean

may produce some brief showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the 

coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night, 

then will expand in areal coverage across most of the central 

Caribbean Mon through Wed, as high pressure builds across the 

western Atlantic. Wind will reach near gale-force at night off of 

Colombia Mon night through Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to 

develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon 

through Wed, behind a dying cold front that will sweep across the 

region.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos, where a

stationary front continues to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are

along the front north of 26N. Recent satellite scatterometer data

indicates moderate to fresh W winds west of the frontal boundary

north of 27N. Seas are 8-9 ft north of 27N between 52W and 73W. A

weak cold front extends from 31N76W to Cape Canaveral, FL.

Moderate NW winds follow the front. Remaining tropical Atlantic

waters are dominated by 1022 mb high pressures centered near

28N43W and 30N35W. Satellite scatterometer from earlier this

morning depicted gentle to moderate winds across the basin. An

area of N swell with seas 8-11 ft is noted in the E Atlantic north

of 22N east of 40W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.



For the forecast west of 55W, the front extending from 31N58W to 

eastern Cuba will weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast 

waters Sun through Mon. A reinforcing cold front will quickly move

across the area from late tonight through Sun, followed by fresh 

to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will 

build across the NE waters Mon night through Tue night. High 

pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina Mon, with the 

associated ridge expected to support moderate to fresh winds 

across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through 

Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed.



$$

Mahoney