####018004880####
AXPZ20 KNHC 062119

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern

Colombia to 06N88W. The ITCZ continues from 06N88W to 06N105W to

06N124W, then resumes W of a surface trough at 03N136W to beyond

03N140W. The surface trough extends from 07N128W to 02N135W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 

86W and 91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is

seen from 02N to 07N W of 130W. This convective activity is

mainly along and ahead of the above mentioned surface trough 

forecast to move westward, crossing 140W in about 36 to 48 hours.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

producing moderate to fresh NW winds. Seas are 8 to 12 ft over 

these waters in long period NW swell. A recent scatterometer pass

indicate fresh to strong NW winds in the central Gulf of California

mainly between 24N and 27N where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft. Gentle

to moderate NW to N winds are elsewhere across the Gulf with 

seas of 3 to 5 ft. Light winds are evident across the remainder

of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed Nw

and SW swell. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

forecast waters of Baja California. Winds and seas will diminish

some the remainder of the weekend, then expect fresh to strong 

NW winds and building seas on Mon as the pressure gradient 

tightens across the area, and a reinforcing set of NW swell 

arrives. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong NW to N winds

are forecast to persist over parts of the Gulf, particularly the

southern one through early Sun morning. Mainly gentle to 

locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to 

moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the

Tehuantepec region is expected Wed night into Thu. Minimal gale 

conditions are possible. 



Of note: Climatologically, the first gale-force gap wind event 

in the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final 

gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. 

Occasionally, gale force gap wind events may occur as early as 

September, and as late as May.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Satellite derived wind data showed moderate to fresh NE to E 

winds in the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W. Seas are 4

to 6 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are

across the remainder of Nicaragua and El Salvador offshore 

waters. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere with an area

of gentle to moderate SE to S winds just NE of the Galapagos

Islands. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except to 6 ft SW of the 

Galapagos Islands due to SW swell. Light concentration of smoke 

from agricultural fires has been noticed over coastal areas of 

northern Central America for the past several days.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 

expected in the Papagayo region through at least Tue, with seas 

in the 4 to 6 ft. These winds are expected to further increase 

to fresh to strong speeds at night tonight through Mon night. 

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are

forecast elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A ridge extends from a strong 1039 mb high pressure located N of

the Hawaiian Islands to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The 

pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of fresh to strong 

trade winds mainly 04N to 25N W of 130W, and from 08N to 22N 

between 120W and 130W. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the 

presence of these winds. Seas area 8 to 11 ft in this area based 

on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 

are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the

weather pattern across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of

110W through the next several days. The high pressure will move 

eastward and weaken some by Mon. As a result, a large area of 

fresh to strong trades will persist over the west-central waters 

through at least Mon.

 

$$

GR