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AXPZ20 KNHC 070402

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern

Colombia to 06N82W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 

05N110W to 06N130W, then resumes W of a surface trough at 

04N137W to beyond 03N140W. The surface trough extends from 

07N132W to 01N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 

03N to 07N between 84W and 94W, from 02N to 09N between 113W and

125W, and from 00N to 09N between 126W and 140W.  



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The associated pressure gradient between a surface ridge 

extending to the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and

lower pressure along Mexico is supporting fresh NW winds along

the peninsula offshore zones as well as along the Gulf of

California. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in long period NW swell over the 

waters N of Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California seas are 

in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are 

elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas 

of 3 to 4 ft in mixed NW and SW swell.



For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 

offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Winds and seas will 

diminish some the remainder of the weekend, then expect fresh to 

strong NW winds and building seas on Mon as the pressure gradient

tightens across the area, and a reinforcing set of NW swell 

arrives. In the Gulf of California, fresh NW to N winds are 

forecast to persist over the central and southern parts of the 

Gulf through early Sun morning. Mainly gentle to locally 

moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate 

seas. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 

region is expected Thu morning through Fri night. Minimal gale 

conditions are possible. 



Of note: Climatologically, the first gale-force gap wind event 

in the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final 

gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. 

Occasionally, gale force gap wind events may occur as early as 

September, and as late as May.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region

and downwind to near 88W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft within these winds.

Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama while light

to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3

to 5 ft, except to 6 ft S of the Galapagos Islands due to SW 

swell. Light concentration of smoke from agricultural fires has 

been noticed over coastal areas of northern Central America for 

the past several days.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 

expected in the Papagayo region through at least Tue, with seas 

in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate NE winds will pulse in the

region of Papagayo the remainder forecast period. Light to 

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast

elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A ridge extends from a strong 1038 mb high pressure located near

37N154WN SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 

gradient between this system and lower pressure in the vicinity 

of the ITCZ supports a large area of fresh to strong trade winds 

mainly from 07N to 24N W of 116W. Recent altimer data confirmed 

seas of 8-10 ft in the presence of these winds and mixed N and NE

long period swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 

are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the

weather pattern across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of

110W through the next several days. The high pressure will move 

eastward and weaken some by Mon. As a result, the large area of 

fresh to strong trades over the west-central waters will 

gradually diminish in areal coverage through Fri before

completely subsiding.

 

$$

Ramos