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AXNT20 KNHC 070531

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0500 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau 

near 11N15W, continuing to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W 

to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate

to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 

10W and 22W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A ridge dominates the Gulf waters while low pressures are noted

over eastern Mexico. This weather pattern is leading to fresh to

strong SE winds over the western Gulf. A recent scatterometer 

satellite pass noted these winds mainly west of 87W. Light to 

gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, while moderate NE 

winds prevail in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the 

western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. 



For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf will shift 

northeastward through the weekend. This will support mostly 

fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf through 

tonight before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong winds will pulse 

at night off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight 

through Mon night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most

of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed, 

ahead of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is 

expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from

near Mobile Bay to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thu 

morning.



CARIBBEAN SEA...



The ridge in the Atlantic has moved farther east, allowing for 

winds to slightly diminish in the south-central Caribbean. 

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates fresh winds near 

the coast of Colombia, where seas have subsided to 4 to 6 ft. 

Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the 

Caribbean, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to 

strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia and NW 

Venezuela at night through Sun night. High pressure will build SE 

across the western Atlantic early next week, tightening the 

pressure gradient across the area. This will result in winds 

expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean 

Mon, pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia Mon night

through Wed night. The building high pressure will also support 

fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of

Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak cold front extends from 31N63W to the northern Bahamas 

and continues across central Florida. Another cold front to the 

east extends from 31N56W to the southern Bahamas. Fresh to 

strong southerly winds are ahead of the farther east front, 

north of 26N and west of 50W, where combined seas are 6 to 8 ft 

in westerly swell. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are between 

the eastern front and the weak western front, as well as behind 

the western front, north of 27N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 



The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the 

influence of a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 29N32W. 

Scatterometer data depicted a light to moderate anticyclonic flow 

N of 20N while moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted 

over the tropical Atlantic. An area of N swell, with seas 8 to 11 

ft is noted in the E Atlantic north of 22N east of 30W. Elsewhere,

E of the front, seas are 6 to 9 ft.



For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern cold front will weaken 

as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun 

through Mon night. The reinforcing cold front extending from 

31N63W to the northern Bahamas will quickly move across the area 

tonight through Sun, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds 

N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE 

waters Mon through Tue night. High pressure will move off the 

Carolina coast Mon, then drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night. 

The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across 

the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue 

night, becoming fresh to strong Wed. Fresh southerly winds will 

develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and 

increase to strong to near gale- force Wed night through Thu.



$$

Mora