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AXPZ20 KNHC 270928

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0800 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The equatorial trough extends from 10N78W to 08.5N87W to 

08.5N107W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N107W to 07N126W to 

beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted

from 03.5N to 08N between 80W and 98W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 10N W of 106W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A 1031 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian

Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo

Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a 

surface trough over NW and central Mexico is supporting moderate

to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California waters, as

recently measured by satellite scatterometer. Seas there are 6 

to 9 ft in NW swell. Fresh westerly gap winds continue inside 

the Gulf of California, near the more prominent gaps of the

peninsula. Seas downwind have built to 3-5 ft. Gentle to 

moderate westerly winds are across the remaining Gulf, where 

seas are 2 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at

4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder 

of the S and SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo San Lucas  

and Tehuantepec.



For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the 

NE Pacific to sustain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja

offshore waters, becoming locally strong during the afternoon 

and evening hours through Sat. Westerly gap winds across the 

Gulf of California are expected to continue through Sat morning,

then shift to northerly. The high pressure will move east and 

weaken modestly Sun through the middle of next week, leading to 

weakening winds across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will 

build across the Baja waters today, then become reinforced over 

the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft across the outer 

waters of Baja Norte this morning, and gradually shifting

westward and increasing Sun night through Wed.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Scattered tstms prevail across the offshore waters between the 

Galapagos Islands and the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama, and

extend westward to beyond 90W. Fresh easterly gap winds are 

within 150 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and the Gulf of 

Papagayo, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between the Galapagos Islands

and Ecuador, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ongoing along 

with seas 5 to 6 ft in S swell. Light to gentle variable winds 

with 4 to 5 ft seas are present elsewhere in S swell. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are 

expected across the Papagayo region through Sat morning, then

will remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. 

Moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama will shift to W to SW 

during the coming days. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere through Mon before new S swell raises

seas slightly across the regional waters Mon night and Tue.

Looking ahead, a more significant S swell is expected across the

region late in the week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1031 mb center of high pressure near 35N144W extends a broad 

ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The

associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 07N to 25N W of 115W, as

recently measured by satellite scatterometer. Seas in this 

region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 25N and W of the

Baja California offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate 

from the N to NE, with seas are in the 5-7 ft range in northerly 

swell, except to 8 ft along 120W. Gentle to moderate SE to S 

winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell 

prevail near and S of the ITCZ.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds will continue

S of 22N and west of 118W through Tue, occasionally pulsing to 

strong. This will maintain seas at 6 to 9 ft south of the ridge. 

Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north 

of 22N through Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja 

California Norte building 8 to 12 ft Sun through Wed, and 

gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast 

across the remainder of the waters through early next week.



$$

Stripling