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AXPZ20 KNHC 071539

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern

Colombia to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 05N115W to

06N132W, then resumes W of a surface trough at 06N137W to beyond

05N140W. The surface trough extends from 10N133W to 02N136W. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 

04N to 08N E of 94W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate

convection is seen on either side of the trough axis from 03N to

10N between 125W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The associated pressure gradient between a surface ridge extending

to the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and lower 

pressure along Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds 

along the peninsula offshore zones as well as along the Gulf of 

California. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in long period NW swell over the

waters N of Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California seas are 

in the 4 to 6 ft range S of 28N, and 1 to 3 ft N of 28N. Gentle 

to moderate W to NW winds are elsewhere across the remainder of

the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 4 ft in mixed NW 

and SW swell. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the

Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

forecast waters of Baja California. Winds and seas will diminish

some today, then expect fresh to strong NW winds and building 

seas on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens across the area, 

and a reinforcing set of NW swell arrives. In the Gulf of 

California, fresh NW to N winds are forecast to diminish to 

moderate speeds this morning. Mainly gentle to locally moderate 

winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. 

Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region 

is expected early Thu morning through Sat. Gale conditions are 

possible with building seas to 13 or 14 ft. 



Of note: Climatologically, the first gale-force gap wind event 

in the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final 

gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. 

Occasionally, gale force gap wind events may occur as early as 

September, and as late as May.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region

and downwind to near 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds.

Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama while light

to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft,

except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador due to 

SW swell. Light concentration of smoke from agricultural fires 

has been noticed over coastal areas of northern Central America 

for the past several days.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 

expected in the Papagayo region through at least Tue, with seas 

in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will 

pulse in the Papagayo area through Thu. Light to gentle winds 

and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds

with seas building to 8 to 9 ft in the Papagayo region early on 

Fri. At that time, fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf

of Panama. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A ridge extends from a strong 1036 mb high pressure located NE 

of the Hawaiian Islands near 36N151W to beyond the Revillagigedo

Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of 

fresh to strong trade winds mainly from 09N to 20N W of 125W. 

Recent altimeter data confirmed seas of 8 to 12 ft within these 

winds in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. Gentle to moderate 

winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the

weather pattern across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of

110W through the next several days. The high pressure will move 

eastward and weaken some by Tue. As a result, the large area of 

fresh to strong trades over the west-central waters will 

gradually diminish in areal coverage. 

 

$$

GR