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AXPZ20 KNHC 072110

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern

Colombia to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 05N110W to

07N134W, then resumes W of a surface trough at 05N140W. The 

surface trough extends from 10N137W to 05N138W. Scattered 

moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N

between 80W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on 

either side of the trough axis from 03N to 10N W of 127W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

producing moderate to fresh NW winds. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW 

swell within these winds. In the Gulf of California, gentle to 

moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted S of 28N while 

light to gentle NW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere.

Gentle to moderate NW winds are observed between Los Cabos and

Las Marias Islands, with seas of 4 to 7 ft just W of the

mentioned islands. Light to gentle W to NW winds are observed 

elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters 

with seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Seas are 6 to 8

ft in the vicinity, and in between the Revillagigedo and Clarion

Islands.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

forecast waters of Baja California. Expect increasing winds and

building seas across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight into

Mon as the pressure gradient tightens across the area, and a 

reinforcing set of NW swell arrives. In the Gulf of California,

mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail through Thu, then

winds will veer to the S and increase to fresh speeds across the

northern part of the Gulf as a cold front approaches from the W.

Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 

with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next gap wind 

event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin early Thu 

morning, and likely persist through Sat. Gale conditions are 

possible, with building seas to 13 or 14 ft. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region

and downwind to near 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds.

Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama while light

to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft,

except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador due to 

SW swell. Light concentration of smoke from agricultural fires 

are still noticed over coastal areas of northern Central America.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 

expected in the Papagayo region through at least Tue, with seas 

in the 5 to 7 ft range, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are

expected through Thu. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, 

expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds, with seas 

building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on Fri. At 

the same time, fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of

Panama. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A ridge extends from a strong 1036 mb high pressure located NE 

of the Hawaiian Islands near 36N148W to beyond the Revillagigedo

Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of 

fresh to strong trade winds mainly from 10N to 22N W of 125W

based on scatterometer data. Recent altimeter data confirmed the

presence of 9 to 13 ft within these winds in mixed NE wind waves

and NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 

noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the

weather pattern across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of

110W through the next several days. The high pressure will

continue to move eastward and weaken some by Tue. As a result, 

the large area of fresh to strong trades over the west-central 

waters will gradually diminish in areal coverage. 

 

$$

GR