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AXNT20 KNHC 072312

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through The Gambia coast 

and continues southwestward to 07N16W. An ITCZ extends from 07N16W

to 03N20W to the Equator at 30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 05N

between 12W and 45W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1021 mb located over South Carolina extends a

ridge across the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system,

gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted, with the exception 

of moderate to fresh SE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. 

Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft

over the eastern Gulf. Seas of 3 ft are in the Yucatan Channel.

Multilayer clouds dominate the northern Gulf waters.



For the forecast, the high pressure will shift into the Atlantic

on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast 

of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong 

SE winds will develop over most of Gulf Mon afternoon and Mon 

night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching

cold front. This next cold front is expected to move into the 

western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from near Mobile Bay to the 

NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface ridge extends southwestward toward Cuba from a 1021 mb

high pressure located over South Carolina. A stationary front

boundary remains over eastern Cuba. Mainly low clouds and 

possible showers are near the front. Fresh to strong trades are 

noted per scatterometer data over the south-central Caribbean, 

including the Gulf of Venezuela, with seas of 5 to 8 ft outside 

the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 

5 prevail elsewhere, with the exception of the NW Caribbean where

seas of 2 to 4 ft are observed. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the 

coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela tonight. High pressure will 

build SE across the western Atlantic early next week, tightening 

the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in 

fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across most of 

the central Caribbean Mon night, pulsing to near gale-force at 

night off of Colombia Mon night through Thu night. The building 

high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds developing 

in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of 

Honduras starting Mon evening. Looking ahead, a cold front is 

expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N50W and continues

SW to near 22N65W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. A

reinforcing front follows and stretches from 31N56W to the

central Bahamas. Mainly low clouds and isolated showers are

associated with these fronts. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and

seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 27N and E of the main front to about

48W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted in the wake of the 

reinforcing front with seas also in the 8 to 10 ft range. N of

28N and between fronts, SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are 

evident. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the

influence of 1024 mb high pressure located near 29N30W. Gentle to

moderate anticyclonic flow covers the waters N of 20N and E of

the above mentioned main front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds

are near the coast of Africa from 10N to 30N due to the pressure

gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over E 

Africa. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft within these winds, except

in the lee of the lee of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For 

the tropical Atlantic and E of the Lesser Antilles, gentle to 

moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the main front will weaken as it 

moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through early 

Tue. The reinforcing cold front will move across the area through

Mon night, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 

27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters 

late tonight through Tue night. High pressure will move off the 

Carolina coasts Mon, and drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night, 

then shift E Thu. The associated ridge will support moderate to 

fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean 

approaches Mon through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed 

through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of 

Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to 

near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching 

cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula 

Thu night and reach the NW Bahamas Fri morning.



$$

GR