####018004378#### AXPZ20 KNHC 272046 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 10N85W to 1011 mb low pres near 07N93W to 08.5N108W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N108W to 07.5N120W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 100W and from 05N to 11N between 111W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW and central Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds across the Pacific waters to the west of Baja California. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are prevalent across the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 3 ft. Fresh NNW winds and 6 to 7 ft seas prevail west of 105W, to the SW of a line from Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder of the S and SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec. For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the NE Pacific to sustain fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters, with locally strong winds this afternoon and evening. Winds across the Gulf of California are expected to be gentle to moderate northwesterly over the southern and central Gulf through Sun night. The high pressure will move east and weaken modestly Sun through the middle of next week, leading to weakening winds across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across the waters to the west of Baja California today, then become reinforced late in the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte, and gradually shifting westward and increasing Sun night through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered tstms prevail across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Winds across most of the area are moderate or weaker, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Mon before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, a more significant S swell is expected across the region late in the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1031 mb center of high pressure near 34N142W extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 07N to 23N W of 120W. Seas in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 25N and W of 125W, winds are moderate from the NE, with seas in the 5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell prevail near and S of the ITCZ. For the forecast, fresh trade winds will continue from the ITCZ to 22N, and west of 122W through Tue, occasionally pulsing to locally strong. This will maintain seas of 6 to 10 ft. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 22N through Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja California Norte building 8 to 12 ft Sun through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast across the remainder of the waters through early next week. $$ Hagen