####018003926#### AXPZ20 KNHC 150846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N85W to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 09N110W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 01S100W to 01S120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 115W and 120W, and from 06N to 08N between 126W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak cold front is analyzed from southern Arizona and across the Gulf of California and Baja California Norte along 29N. Moderate NW winds are noted over the far northern Gulf of California following the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds funneling off the coast of Cabo San Lucas. An altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to 12 ft combined seas off Baja California, and waveheights in excess of 8 ft reach as far south as 20N. For the forecast, low pressure over the southwestern United States will lift northward through late today, as high pressure centered west of the region builds eastward. Meanwhile, large swell off Baja California will subside through tonight. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and coast of southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 5 to 8 ft. This pattern also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the region. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region through Sat. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NW winds along with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell are evident north of 20N and east of 130W. These winds are associated with weak low pressure over the southwestern United States. Weak ridging is displaced well north of the area, and this pattern is supporting only gentle to moderate trade winds over deep tropics. NW swell in excess of 8 ft covers most the waters west of 105W, with a mix of NW and SE swell near the equator. For the forecast, the low pressure will lift north today followed by weak ridging building north of 25N through Sun. This change in the pattern will allow moderate to fresh winds north of 20N and east of 130W to diminish today. Combined seas will subside across most of the basin into Sun, except north of 15N and west of 130W where a new swell group with 8 to 10 ft waveheights will accompany a weak cold front drifting into the region from the northwest. The front will stall along 135W north of 25N by late today and dissipate Sat. Looking ahead, trade winds will increase between 120W and 130W from 05N to 15N starting Mon as the high pressure becomes established farther north. Combined seas will build to 7 to 9 ft in this area in part due to the increase trade winds but also due to reinforcing NW swell. $$ Christensen