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AXPZ20 KNHC 080931

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Apr 08 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0915 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from low pressure OF 1006 mb over northwest 

Colombia, southwestward to 08N78W to 06N83W to 08N90W and to 

06N98W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it 

transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N117W to 04N127W and 

to 04N137W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm

north of the ITCZ between 98W and 101W, within 90 nm north 

of trough between 81W and 84W, within 30 nm of ITCZ between 101W

and 109W and between 118W and 127W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 

across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Its 

associated gradient is producing fresh northwest winds north of 

Punta Eugenia and moderate northwest winds south of Punta 

Eugenia. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in northwest swell north of Punta 

Eugenia and 6 to 9 ft south of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of 

California, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds and seas 

of 4 to 6 ft are south of 28N while light to gentle northwest 

winds are north of 28N, except for light southwest winds north 

of 29N per an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass over that part

of the Gulf. Seas with these winds are 1 to 3 ft. Gentle to 

moderate northwest winds are over the waters between Los Cabos 

and Las Marias Islands, with seas of 5 to 7 ft due to a long- 

period northwest swell just west of the mentioned islands. Light 

to gentle west to northwest winds are elsewhere across the 

remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft 

due to a mixture of long-period southwest and northwest swell. 

Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo 

Clarion Islands.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the offshore 

forecast waters of Baja California for the next few days. Fresh

northwest winds across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro will 

diminish after they spread southward to the offshore waters west 

of Baja California Sur. Northwest swell will propagate to the 

offshore waters west of Baja California through early Tue, then 

subside afterward. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to 

moderate northwest winds will prevail through Thu. These winds 

will then become fresh to strong, south to southwest in 

direction, on Fri over the northern part of the Gulf as a cold 

front approaches from the west Mainly gentle to locally moderate 

winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. 

Looking ahead, the next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early on Thu. It will likely 

persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around 15 ft 

with this upcoming event.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong east winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo 

region and west from there to near 89W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with 

these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are in the Gulf of 

Panama while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 

generally 3 to 5 ft, except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands

and Ecuador due to a long-period south to southwest swell.



Hazy conditions along and just offshore northern Central America

are due to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong east winds will continue 

in the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Tue afternoon, then 

diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to 

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period 

south to southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu. 

Looking ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds,

with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on

Fri. These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri night into 

early Sat while at the same time fresh northerly winds start in 

the Gulf of Panama. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure associated to a 1034 mb high center that is

analyzed well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is 

the main feature influencing the weather pattern over this part 

of the area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 

relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 

sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds 

mainly from about 10N to 22N west of 126W and from 10N to 16N

between 118W and 126W based on the latest available ASCAT 

satellite data passes. An overnight altimeter satellite data 

pass indicated seas to 12 ft with these winds. In addition, a 

couple of ship observations within the area of these trade winds 

indicate similar seas. Mostly fresh northeast winds along with 

moderate seas are present elsewhere.



For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 

in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north 

of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The 

high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts

eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trades 

over the west-central waters will gradually diminish in areal 

coverage. 

 

$$

Aguirre