####018006065####
AXPZ20 KNHC 082111

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W westward to 

07N92W. The ITCZ continues from 07N92W to 04N120W to beyond 

03N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are 

noted from 04N to 10N E of 105W to the coast of Colombia. Similar

convective activity is observed from 10N to 12N between 90W and 

97W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge is the main feature controlling the wind regime across 

the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Recent

scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NW to N winds N of

Punta Eugenia between the coast of Baja California Norte and 

125W. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail between Cabo San Lucas 

and Punta Eugenia. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell with these 

winds, with highest seas N of 29N. In the Gulf of California, 

satellite derived wind data depicted fresh to strong west winds

near the border of Baja California Norte and Sur where seas are

in the 3 to 5 ft range. Light and variable winds are noted over 

the southern part of the Gulf while gentle to moderate W to NW 

winds prevail elsewhere. Seas with these winds are 1 to 3 ft. 

Light to gentle west to northwest winds are seen across the 

remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft 

due to a mixture of long-period southwest and northwest swell. 

Seas are 6 to 7 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo

Islands due to NW swell.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the

weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California for the next few days. The fresh to strong winds N of

Punta Eugenia will diminish by tonight after they spread 

southward to the offshore waters west of Baja California Sur. 

Northwest swell will propagate to the offshore waters west of 

Baja California through early Tue, then subside afterward. In the

Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate northwest winds 

will prevail through Thu. These winds will then become fresh to 

locally strong, south to southwest in direction, on Fri and Fri 

night over the northern part of the Gulf as a cold front 

approaches from the west. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds

will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. Looking 

ahead, the next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early on Thu. It will likely 

persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around 15 ft 

with this upcoming event.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong east winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo 

region and west from there to near 90W as noted in a recent

scatterometer pass. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Gentle 

to moderate north winds are in the Gulf of Panama while gentle to

locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 

to 5 ft, except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador

due to a long-period south to southwest swell. 



Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are 

observed on satellite imagery across the offshore waters of Costa

Rica, Panama and Colombia. Winds and seas could be higher near 

thunderstorms. Hazy conditions observed along and just offshore

northern Central America, between Nicaragua and Guatemala, are 

due to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue

in the Gulf of Papagayo region through Tue morning, then diminish

to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to gentle winds 

and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period south to 

southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu. Looking 

ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds, with 

seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on Fri. 

These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri night into early 

Sat while at the same time fresh northerly winds start in the 

Gulf of Panama with seas likely building up to 7 ft. Abundant

moisture, in a southerly wind flow, is expected to persist 

across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia 

supporting the development of showers and thunderstorms in that 

area.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1033 mb that is analyzed well to the northeast 

of the Hawaiian Islands is the main feature influencing the 

weather pattern over the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.  

The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively 

lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is sustaining a 

rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds mainly from 

about from 07N to 21N W of 120W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these 

winds based on altimeter data. Mostly fresh northeast winds 

along with moderate seas are present elsewhere.



For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 

in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north 

of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The 

high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts

eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trade 

winds over the central and western waters will gradually diminish

in areal coverage. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to 

reach 30N140W on Fri and move across the northern forecast waters.



$$

GR