####018004445#### AXPZ20 KNHC 152049 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 05N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 82W and 85W, from 00N to 03.4S between 88W and 94W, and from 05N to 08N between 124W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from low pressure over Arizona to across the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are S of the front in the Gulf downwind of Baja California gaps. A NW to SE ridge extends across the remainder of the open waters with gentle to moderate winds. NW swell of 7-10 ft covers the waters W of 110W and offshore Baja California, with 4-7 ft elsewhere except 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, low pressure over the southwestern United States will lift northward through tonight, as high pressure centered west of the region builds eastward. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will develop as a result from the Gulf of California SE to near Cabo Corrientes, and offshore of Baja California Sun into early next week, increasing to fresh to strong near Cabo Corrientes Mon night. Meanwhile, large swell off Baja California will subside through tonight. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and coast of southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 5-8 ft. This pattern also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are SW of western Panama. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region through Sun morning, then possibly returning late Tue night into Wed. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build seas slightly from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend, reaching near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is entering the NW corner near 30N140W with some scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are ahead of the front, while associated W-NW swell of 7-10 ft has breached SE of 30N140W. Ridging extends across the open waters ahead of the front and N of the ITCZ, from 30N133W to 20N120W to 17N110W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under the ridge, locally fresh near and just N of the ITCZ W of 120W. Another set of NW swell is offshore Baja California to near 130W where seas are 7-10 ft. Seas of 6-9 ft in mixed swell covers the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and stall as it pushes more SE of 30N140W. Low pressure may develop near 30N140W this weekend along the stalled out boundary, with winds increasing to at least fresh along 140W and N of 27N. The low may linger into early next week before weakening and opening to a trough. The nearby NW swell of 7-10 ft will reach N of 10N and W of 130W by late Sat, gradually decaying thereafter. Meanwhile, the swell offshore Baja California to 130W will subside to less than 8 ft by the 2nd half of the weekend. Mixed swell of 6-8 ft will prevail elsewhere, with winds of mainly moderate or weaker, locally fresh near and just N of the ITCZ. $$ Lewitsky