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AXNT20 KNHC 082315

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...GALE WARNING E OF 35W...



The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1027 mb located  

over the Atlantic, west of the Madeira Islands near 32N26W and

lower pressure over western Africa will continue to support 

gale-force winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and 

Tarfaya. The forecast calls for N or NE winds 8 (Beaufort Wind 

Scale) with severe gusts. A Gale Warning is in effect through at 

least 09/1200 UTC.



For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast

listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra

Leone near 08N13W, and continues SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends

from 03N17 to the Equator at 23W, to the Brazilian coast near

02S44W. Most of the convective activity is just south of the

Equator. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is

evident from 00N to 04N between 19W and 30W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from high pressure off the Carolinas coast across

Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between 

the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is promoting fresh to 

strong SE winds across the NW Gulf based on buoy observations. 

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 

in the 4 to 7 ft range W of 90W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft ft E of 90W, 

except 1 to 3 ft in the coastal waters of E Florida. Some shower 

and thunderstorm activity is near the coasts of Texas and 

Louisiana. 



For the forecast, the high pressure will shift into the Atlantic

through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over 

most of Gulf this evening and tonight. Winds will then become SE 

to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front, increasing

to near gale-force across the central Bay of Campeche Tue night.

This next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf 

Wed morning, reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of 

the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of basin by 

Fri morning. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong winds prevail off the coast of Colombia, as well

as N of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf

of Honduras as well as the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate 

winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range off the

coast of Colombia, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 15N and E of 

80W. Seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate most of the NW Caribbean, with 

the exception of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward 

Passage. 



An Atlantic cold front extends across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico 

and the US/UK Virgin Islands generating mostly cloudy skies and 

some shower activity. The front is forecast to linger in the

vicinity of the above mentioned islands tonight and Tue helping 

to maintain the shower activity. 



For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western 

Atlantic through Wed, tightening the pressure gradient across the

region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in 

areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean tonight, and 

pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia tonight 

through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support 

fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south 

of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting this evening.

Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the high 

pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking 

ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu 

night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N44W and continues 

SW to over Hispaniola. A weakening reinforcing front follows and

stretches from 31N50W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Mainly 

low clouds and isolated showers are associated with these fronts.

Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 

26N and E of the main front to about 40W. Fresh to strong W to 

NW winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft in NW are noted N of 27N and W of  

the reinforcing front to about 66W. A 1025 mb high pressure

located off the Carolinas coast follow the fronts. The remainder

of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of 1026 

mb high pressure situated near the Azores. Fresh to strong NE

winds are seen on scatterometer data across the southern periphery

of the high pressure center roughly from 12N to 24N between 20W 

and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft 

with these winds. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic gentle 

to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, the main front will weaken as it 

moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through Tue. A 

reinforcing cold front will move across the area through Tue, 

accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 29N tonight. 

Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters through

Tue night. High pressure off the North Carolina coast will drift

SE to near Bermuda by Wed night, then shift E Thu and Fri. The 

associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the 

Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night,

becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds 

will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed 

evening and increase to strong to near gale-force Wed night 

through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is 

expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night, reach from 

31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to 

the central Bahamas Sat morning.



$$

GR