####018006899####
AXPZ20 KNHC 090810

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Tue Apr 09 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0800 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from low pressure of 1008 mb over northwest 

Colombia, westward to the coast of Panama near 08N78W and 

continues to 08N91W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 

that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N106W to 

04N120W to 05N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Increasing clusters 

of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm

north of the ITCZ between 95W and 100W and within 150 nm south 

of the ITCZ between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate to isolated

strong convection is within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 91W

and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of 

the ITCZ between 121W and 125W, also within 60 nm north of the 

ITCZ between 91W and 94W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between

102W and 107W, within 30 nm north of trough between 82W and 85W 

and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 107W and 110W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 

across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Fresh

to strong northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters 

of Baja California from 23N to 25N and west to near 115W. Seas 

with these winds have subsided slightly to 8 to 9 ft. Fresh

northwest to north are over the offshore waters of Baja

California north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft

due to long-period northwest swell. In the Gulf of California, 

northwest to north gentle to moderate winds are over the 

southern part while fresh west to northwest winds are over the 

central part and moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are 

over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 4 ft are over 

the northern and southern sections and 4 to 6 ft seas are over 

the central section. Light to gentle west to northwest winds are 

across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 

4 to 6 ft due to a mixture of long-period southwest and 

northwest swell. Seas are 6 to 7 ft over the waters surrounding 

the Revillagigedo Islands due to NW swell.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 

weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California for the next few days. Fresh to strong northwest winds

offshore Baja California will diminish to mostly moderate speeds

on Tue. The northwest swell producing seas of 8 to 10 ft north 

of 25N will slowly subside today into this evening. In the Gulf 

of California, winds will generally become light and variable on 

Thu throughout. On Fri, winds over the northern part of the Gulf 

are forecast to become fresh in speeds, south to southwest in 

direction, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night 

prior to the approach of a cold front. Gentle to locally 

moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate 

seas. Looking ahead, the next gale force gap wind event in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early on Thu. It will 

likely persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around 

16 ft with this upcoming event. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and 

west from there to near 89W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds.

Gentle to moderate north winds are south of the Gulf of Panama 

west of 79W and light variable winds are east of 79W. Generally 

light to gentle southwest to west winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4

to 6 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell, except 

for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft over the waters between 

the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.



Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters

of Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. Winds and seas 

may be higher in and near this activity as it is expected to

stay active today through late on Wed. Hazy conditions observed 

along and just offshore northern Central America, northward of 

northern Nicaragua are due to mostly smoke produced by 

agricultural fires.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of 

Papagayo region will diminish to moderate early this afternoon

and to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to gentle 

winds and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period south to 

southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu. Looking 

ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds, with 

seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on Fri. 

These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri night into early 

Sat while at the same time fresh northerly winds start in the 

Gulf of Panama with seas likely building up to 7 ft. Abundant 

moisture drawn in by a very moist and unstable southerly wind 

flow is expected to persist across the offshore waters of Costa 

Rica, Panama and Colombia supporting the development of scattered

to numerous showers and thunderstorms over those waters.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1031 mb that is analyzed well to the northeast 

of the Hawaiian Islands is the main feature influencing the 

weather pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 

about 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 

relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 

sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds 

mainly from about from 09N to 20N west of about 130W and from 

07N to 15N between 120W and 130W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these

winds based on the latest altimeter satellite data passed and on

a couple of ship observations. Mostly fresh northeast winds 

along with moderate seas are present elsewhere.



For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 

in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north 

of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The 

high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts

eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trade 

winds over the central and western waters will gradually diminish

in areal coverage. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the

far northwest waters on Fri.



$$

Aguirre