####018004509#### AXPZ20 KNHC 160839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N90W to 03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 08N115W to 05N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 02S102W to 02N120W to 00N125W. Scattered moderate convection from 04N to 06N between 82W and 92W, and from 10N to 13N between 108W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening frontal boundary extends from low pressure over southwest New Mexico, across the Gulf of California to Punta Eugenia on the coast of Baja California. Earlier altimeter satellite data indicated large wave heights persisting off Baja California, primarily due to lingering NW swell. Moderate combined seas are noted elsewhere in open waters, with slight seas over the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate breezes persist across all Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican offshore waters into Sun, as large NW swell off Baja California gradually subsides. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night, and off Cabo Corrientes by late Mon as the high pressure builds west of the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. Looking ahead, these winds will diminish through late Tue. Farther south, fresh to strong gap will start by late Mon over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and coast of southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft. This pattern also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are SW of western Panama. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region through Sun morning, then possibly returning Wed. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build seas slightly from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend, reaching near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A frontal boundary has stalled near 30N140W. Waveheights are 8 to 10 ft accompany this front, primarily due to NW swell propagating into the region. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere due to an earlier group of NW swell lingering over the region mainly west of 105W. A component of southerly swell is mixing with the NW swell south of 05N between 105W and 120W. Shorter period wind waves from moderate trade wind flow is also mixing with the NW swell over the waters from 05N to 15N west of 125W. No major convection is evident at this time. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and stall Sat as it pushes more to the southeast of 30N140W. Low pressure may develop near 30N140W by late Sun along the stalled out boundary, with winds increasing to at least fresh along 140W and north of 27N. The low may linger into early next week before weakening and opening to a trough. The nearby NW swell of 7-10 ft will reach N of 10N and W of 130W by late today, gradually decaying thereafter. Meanwhile, the swell offshore Baja California to 130W will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sun. Mixed swell of 6-8 ft will prevail elsewhere, with winds of mainly moderate or weaker, locally fresh near and just north of the ITCZ. $$ Christensen