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AXNT20 KNHC 091557

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1540 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...



The 24-hour forecast for the Gulf of Mexico consists of a cold

front along 30N94W 20.5N97W. Expect strong to near gale-force

SE to S winds, and rough seas, from 18N to 30N between 84W and 

95W. Expect NW to N winds to the west of the cold front. Expect 

frequent gusts to gale-force, starting a few hours later tomorrow 

on Wednesday, from the midday hours until Thursday, from 28N to 

30N between 88W and 91W. Please, read the latest High Seas 

Forecast, at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.



...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...



The current METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of gale-force

winds in the marine zone AGADIR until 10/0600 UTC. Gale-force 

winds are in the marine zone TARFAYA until 10/0000 UTC. Rough seas

are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Please, refer to the 

website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. The 24-hour outlook 

consists of: the persistence or the threat of N to NE near gale-

force or gale-force winds in the marine zone CANARIAS.



A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 41N12W. A NW-to-SE oriented

inland Africa surface trough is along 29N10W 17N07W. The surface 

pressure gradient is comparatively tighter, supporting the gale-

force wind event. Strong NE winds cover the waters that are from

13N northward from 24W eastward.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea

near 10N14W, to 01S20W. The ITCZ continues to 05S28W and to the

Equator along 43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 

isolated strong is from 10N southward from 52W eastward.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the

gale-force wind warning, for midday on Wednesday.



A surface ridge extends from high pressure in the western 

Atlantic Ocean, to the Gulf coast states. A NW-to-SE inland Mexico

surface trough is along 29N102W 26N101W 22N95W. An inland

stationary front passes through Texas to SE Mississippi. 

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and 

isolated moderate, are to the north of the line that is from

20N96W 26N90W 27N80W. 



Rough seas are in the NW corner of the area. Moderate seas are 

nearly everywhere else in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for

slight seas in the far NE corner of the area, off the coast of the

Florida Big Bend. Fresh to strong SE winds are in much of the

western half of the Gulf, and in the Straits of Florida. Moderate

to fresh E to SE winds are in the rest of the eastern half of the

area.



A ridge extends from high pressure in the western Atlantic across

the Gulf coast states. The high will shift further into the 

Atlantic through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds will become SE

to S today through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This 

next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf early 

Wed morning. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to 

the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE

of the area Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of 

the front. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A cold front passes through 19N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to

18N70W just to the south of Hispaniola, to 19N80W. 

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and 

isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 14N to 22N between 

60W and 83W. 



Fresh to strong NE to E winds are between 12N64W 16N69W and 

10N80W 15N81W 17N78W; in the Mona Passage; and to the west of the

line that runs from SE Cuba to the easternmost sections of

Honduras. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Rough seas are:

within 270 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 80W; 

between Jamaica and SE Cuba; in the coastal waters of Belize; and 

off the coast of the border of Haiti and the SW part of the 

Dominican Republic. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the 

Caribbean Sea from 65W off the coast of Venezuela, toward the 

coast of the Dominican Republic, and elsewhere westward. An 

exception is for slight seas is off the coast of the eastern part 

of Honduras. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area that is 

in the eastern one-third of the area.



The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 

at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.47 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.01 in 

Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature 

and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.



High pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Wed,

tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will 

result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across

most of the central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at 

night off of Colombia through Thu night. The building high 

pressure will also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward 

Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds 

will start to diminish the end of the week as the high pressure 

shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking ahead, a cold 

front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then 

stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the

gale-force wind warning, for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones.



A cold front passes through 31N41W 23N50W 19N60W, and into the

northern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are to the

north of 31N30W 26N38W 26N51W 31N60W. Strong southerly winds are

within 240 nm to the east of the cold front from 28N northward.

Moderate to fresh westerly winds are to the west of the front from

28N northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to

isolated strong is within 60 nm on either side of the cold front

from 29N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible

elsewhere within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 

at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.03 in Bermuda. This information is from 

the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.



A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N72W. Rough seas are from

24N northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate seas are in the

remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate to some fresh

anticyclonic winds are from 50W westward.



Fresh to strong NE winds are from 02N to 13N between 40W and 51W.

Fresh NE winds are from 25N southward between 24W and 40W. 

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward 

between 24W and 40W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder

of the Atlantic Ocean.



High pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Wed,

tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will 

result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across

most of the central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at 

night off of Colombia through the next several nights/early 

mornings. The building high pressure will also support fresh to 

strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in 

the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will start to diminish the end of the 

week as the high pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the 

region. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the 

Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW 

Caribbean late Fri.



$$

mt/jl