####018004944####
AXPZ20 KNHC 292049

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N90W to 08N100W. The

ITCZ extends from 08N100W to 07N110W to 08N120W, and from 05N131W

to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm

either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 95W and 105W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within

90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 105W and 125W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Jason-3 altimeter satellite pass from 15 UTC confirmed 

combined wave heights are reaching at least 10 ft west of 

Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte. This is due to NW

swell moving into the region associated with strong winds farther

north off southern California, between high pressure farther west

over the eastern Pacific, and lower pressure inland. The pattern

is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California

reaching as far south as Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate

winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican

offshore waters.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 

large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west

of Guadalupe Island through late Thu. Moderate to fresh SW winds

may pulse across the northern Gulf of California Tue night, 

following a dissipating cold front moving through the region. 

Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist across 

Mexican offshore waters along with moderate combined seas 

primarily in NW swell in open waters. Looking ahead, winds and 

seas will diminish off Baja California Fri and Sat as the high 

pressure north of the area weakens.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Isolated thunderstorms were recently active off the southwestern

Azuero peninsula of Panama, and along the coast of El Salvador.

But the thunderstorm activity off Panama and Costa Rica during 

the past couple of days has diminished greatly, with only a few

linger thunderstorms relegated to beyond 180 nm offshore where

moderate to fresh SW winds are converging toward the monsoon

trough. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes persist elsewhere 

across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3 to 5 ft combined 

seas primarily in SW swell. 



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 

expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 

week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will subside through 

tonight before new S swell raises seas slightly across the 

regional waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell 

is expected across the region Thu through Sat. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered north 

of the area near 35N140W to the southeast toward the

Revillagigedo Islands. A weak surface trough persists along the

ITCZ near 125W. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh

trade winds south of 20N and into the tropical Pacific west of 

120W, as noted by recent satellite scatterometer data. These 

winds in turn are supporting 8 to 9 ft combined seas in the same 

area, as measured with recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle to

moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The 

convergent trade wind flow is supporting clusters of showers and 

thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally from 06N to 10N between

105W and 125W.



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will  

drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will maintain 

fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N, and 

west of 125W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 8 to 9 ft

range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected

north of 25N through Tue, with northerly swell east of 125W to 

include offshore of Baja California Norte persisting to 8 to 12 

ft through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Looking

ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the week ahead of a

cold front moving eastward well to the north of the region. This

will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, although 

combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical Pacific west 

of 135W.



$$

Christensen