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AXPZ20 KNHC 100855

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0845 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf Of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is 

expected in the Tehunatepec starting early on Thu as high

pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra

Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will

be moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to 

increase to minimal gale-force speeds by Thu morning. North to 

northeast winds will increase further to a maximum speed of 40 

kt Thu night into Fri along with building seas expected to peak 

to around 16 or 17 ft. Winds then diminish to minimal gale-force

by early Sat and to fresh to strong speeds afterward into Sun. 

Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread 

well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater 

reaching as far west as 104W by Fri night. Marine interests 

transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into Sat 

should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the 

necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 

affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force 

by Sat night. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 

information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb that is located 

over northern Colombia, southwestward to the coast of Panama at 

08N78W and continues to 08N85W to 10N100W and to 07N107W, where 

latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 

ITCZ and continues to 05N117W to 05N127W and to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm 

south of the trough between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate 

convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 90W and

92W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 80W and 83W

and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 101W and 104W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 

across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Mostly

moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters 

of Baja California, except for fresh northwest winds near 

Cabo San Lucas. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf

of California, fresh northwest winds are over the central and 

southern sections while light to gentle west to northwest winds 

are over the northern section. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the

central and southern Gulf sections and 2 to 3 ft over the

northern section. Light to gentle west to northwest winds 

dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 

of 4 to 6 ft in mixed long period northwest and southwest swell.

Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo

Islands due to a prolonged long-period northwest swell moving 

through those waters. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires

may be along and just offshore the Mexican coast between Cabo 

Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



For the forecast, high pressure over the offshore forecast 

waters of Baja California will begin to weaken and shift 

eastward on Thu in response to a cold front that will be

approaching from the W. Winds offshore Baja California will 

diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu, then will 

become light and gentle winds Fri through Sat ahead of

the aforementioned cold front forecast to reach 30N120W by Sat 

night. In the Gulf of California, winds will generally become 

light and variable on Thu throughout. On Fri, winds over the 

northern part of the Gulf are forecast to become fresh in speeds,

south to southwest in direction, then increase to fresh to 

strong speeds Fri night prior to the approach of the cold front.

Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with 

slight to moderate seas. The next gale-force gap wind event in 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Thu morning. It will

likely persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around 

16 or 17 ft with this upcoming event. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Moderate east to southeast winds are just northwest of the Gulf 

of Papagayo region as noted in an overnight ASCAT satellite data 

pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Light and variable 

winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Generally gentle to moderate 

southerly winds are north of the Equator while light to gentle 

southeast winds are present between Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a long-period south to 

southwest swell.



Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are presently over 

most of the Central American offshore waters. Winds and seas may 

be higher in and near this activity as it is expected to stay 

active through at least through at least Thu. Hazy conditions 

observed along and just offshore northern Central America, 

northward of northern Nicaragua are due to mostly smoke produced 

by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, moderate northeast to east winds in the Gulf 

of Papagayo will shift to the southeast to south tonight. These 

winds will then increase to fresh to strong speeds Thu night 

along with seas building to 8 to 9 ft during Fri. There is a 

possibility for these winds to reach near gale-force late Fri 

night into early Sat with seas building to 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to 

locally strong northerly winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama

Fri night, then pulse through early Sun. Seas with these winds 

will build up to 7 ft. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 

will propagate across the outer SW offshore waters of Guatemala 

and El Salvador by Fri evening. Abundant moisture drawn in by a 

very moist and unstable southerly wind flow is prevalent across 

the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. It is 

expected to favor the development of scattered to numerous 

showers and thunderstorms over these waters through at least Thu.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1030 mb located well to the north of the 

discussion area is the main feature influencing the weather 

pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of about 110W.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively 

lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is sustaining a 

rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds mainly from 

about from 10N to 16N west of about 130W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft 

with these winds based on recent overnight altimeter satellite 

data.  Mostly fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas are

present elsewhere under the influence of the associated ridge.



For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will shift 

eastward through Thu as it weakens with the approach of a cold 

front that is expected to push south into the far northwest part 

of the area on Fri. As a result, the area of trades over the

west central waters will diminish in areal coverage. Seas 

produced by these winds will also subside going into the end of 

the week. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds in addition 

to a new set of northwest swell will follow the front. Seas

peaking to around 12 ft are currently forecast for the waters 

north of about 29N between 132W and 136W on Sat.



$$

Aguirre