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ABIO10 PGTW 301800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN

OCEAN/301800ZAPR2024-011800ZMAY2024//

RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

6.7S 46.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 45.3E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM NORTH-

NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A

SSMIS 301532Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE

PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY

CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY

OFFSET BY LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT OVER

THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF

TANZANIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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