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AXPZ20 KNHC 102119

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is 

expected in the Gulf of Tehunatepec starting early on Thu as high

pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra

Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will 

be moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to increase

to minimal gale-force speeds by Thu morning. North to northeast 

winds will increase further to a maximum speed of 40 kt Thu night

into Fri along with building seas expected to peak to around 16 

or 17 ft. Winds then will diminish to minimal gale-force by 

early Sat afternoon, and below gale force by Sat night. Large 

seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well 

away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching

as far west as 104W by Fri night. Marine interests transiting 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into Sat should be aware

of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action 

to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 

information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 06N95W to

06N110W. The ITCZ continues from 06N110W to 05N125W and to beyond

04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 

noted from 04N to 10N between 81W and 89W. Similar convective 

activity is observed in a about 45 nm wide band extending from 

13N100W to 07N112W. 

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 

across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Gentle to

moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters 

of Baja California. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft based on

altimeter data. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 

northwest winds are over the central and southern sections while 

light and variable winds are over the northern part of the Gulf.

Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds and 1 to 3 ft 

elsewhere. Light to gentle west to northwest winds dominate the 

remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft 

in mixed long period northwest and southwest swell. Seas have 

subsided to 4 to 6 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo

Islands. Light concentration of smoke is noted along and just 

offshore the Mexican coast roughly between Manzanillo and the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec due to agricultural fires. 



For the forecast, high pressure over the offshore forecast waters

of Baja California will begin to weaken and shift eastward on 

Thu in response to a cold front that will be approaching from the

W. Winds offshore Baja California will diminish to gentle to 

moderate speeds through Thu, then will become light and gentle 

winds Fri through Sat ahead of the aforementioned cold front 

forecast to reach 30N120W by Sat night. In the Gulf of California,

winds will generally become light and variable on Thu throughout.

On Fri, winds over the northern part of the Gulf are forecast to

become fresh in speeds, south to southwest in direction, then 

increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night prior to the approach

of the cold front. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail

elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. The next gale-force gap

wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is forecast to 

begin Thu morning, and will likely persist through Sat. Winds 

then will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat night into Sun.

Seas are expected to peak to 16 or 17 ft with this upcoming 

event Thu night into Fri.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted in the Gulf of

Papagayo and downwind to about 88W. Light and variable winds and

seas of 2 to 3 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. Generally gentle to

moderate southerly winds are north of the Equator while light to

gentle southeast winds are present between Ecuador and the 

Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a long-period south 

to southwest swell.



Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are 

still noted across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica,

Panama and Colombia. Winds and seas may be higher in and near 

this convective activity as it is expected to stay active through

at least Thu. Hazy conditions observed along and just offshore 

northern Central America are due to mostly smoke produced by 

agricultural fires.



For the forecast, winds will increase in the Papagayo region to 

fresh to strong speeds Thu night along with seas building to 8 to

9 ft during Fri. There is a possibility for these winds to reach

near gale-force Fri night into Sat with seas building to 8 to 11

ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will develop in the 

Gulf of Panama Fri night, then pulse through Sun night. Seas 

with these winds will build up to 7 ft. Seas generated in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate across the outer SW offshore 

waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Fri. Abundant moisture 

drawn in by a very moist and unstable southerly wind flow is 

prevalent across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and 

Colombia. It is expected to favor the development of scattered to

numerous showers and thunderstorms over these waters through at 

least Thu.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1030 mb located well to the north of the forecast

region near 37N136W extends a ridge across the discussion waters

to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is the main 

feature influencing the weather pattern over the waters north of 

the ITCZ and west of about 110W. The pressure gradient between 

the high pressure and relatively lower pressure found in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is sustaining a rather large area of fresh 

to locally strong trade winds mainly from 07N to 14N west of 

about 132W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds based on

altimeter data. Light to gentle N to NE winds along with moderate

seas are present elsewhere under the influence of the ridge.



For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will weaken on

Thu as a cold front approaches from the W. The cold front will

reach 30N140W on Fri and move across the northern forecast waters

on Sat, extending from 30N120W to 24N130W by Sat evening while

gradually weakening. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds 

and a new set of northwest swell will follow the front. Seas 

peaking 12 or 13 ft are currently forecast for the waters N of 

29N between 128W and 136W by Sat evening.



$$

GR