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AXNT20 KNHC 110509

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Thu Apr 11  2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0509 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from SE 

Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche. The front will reach from 

Apalachicola, Florida to Merida, Mexico by Thu morning, then 

move SE of the area by early Fri morning. Strong to near gale 

force winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected over 

the north-central to northeastern Gulf through Thu ahead of the 

front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with 

improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.



West Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will 

develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas this evening 

and increase to strong to near gale-force late tonight through 

Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected 

to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu and Thu evening. Gales are 

expected Thu and Thu night N of 29N and E of the front, and 

briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu night. The front will reach 

from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda 

to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will then stall 

and dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. 



Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 

nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near Guinea and 

continues SW to near 05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 

02S29W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 

04S to 03N between 12W and 26W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the 

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf waters.



A cold front is currently moving across the Gulf waters, and 

extends SE Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche. A warm front is 

inducing strong to severe tstms over the north- central Gulf and 

the western Florida Panhandle. Another area or scattered 

moderate convection is depicted north of the Yucatan Peninsula 

is association to a surface trough over the area. Outside of 

convection, fresh to strong SE to S winds are ahead of the 

front. Seas are of 8 to 11 ft with these winds N of 25N. Fresh 

to strong NW winds also follow the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft.



For the forecast, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to the 

Bay of Campeche. Strong winds will prevail on both sides of the 

front through Thu. The front will reach from Apalachicola, 

Florida to Merida, Mexico by Thu morning, then move SE of the 

area by early Fri morning. Strong to near gale force winds with 

frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the north-central 

to northeastern Gulf through Thu ahead of the front. High 

pressure will build in the wake of the front with improving 

conditions through the upcoming weekend.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A 1026 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic 

near 29N60W. The pressure gradient between the area of high 

pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force 

winds off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to 

strong winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean, 

including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE winds are over

the western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel ahead of 

the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico waters, with the 

exception of near-gale force winds over the eastern Gulf of 

Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere across the 

Caribbean. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range in the south central 

Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft over the remainder of the central 

Caribbean waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are also in the western 

Caribbean. Seas in the 4 to 7 ft range are found in the eastern 

Caribbean. A trough of low pressure is over the NE Caribbean, 

crossing the Leeward Islands, generating some low level clouds 

and possible showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the 

south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off 

of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are 

possible offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night. 

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, 

south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu 

before diminishing. A cold front is expected to reach the 

Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW 

Caribbean late Fri into Sat.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in 

effect for the West Atlantic. 



A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N35W and

continues SW to the Leeward Islands as a stationary dissipating 

front. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are behind the 

stationary front with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. High 

pressure of 1025 mb follows the front and it is centered over 

the western Atlantic near 29N60W. Light to gentle winds are in 

the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail 

across the southern periphery of the high center with seas of 8 

to 10 ft E of the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are noted 

off Africa N of 25N and E of 19W where seas are 8 to 10 ft. 

Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere with seas 

of 5 to 7 ft.



For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high over the 

western Atlantic will shift E through the end of the week. The 

associated ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the 

Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Thu. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida 

and N of the Bahamas this evening and increase to strong to near 

gale-force late tonight through Thu, ahead of an approaching 

cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula 

Thu and Thu evening. Gales are expected Thu and Thu night N of 

29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the front Thu 

night. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri 

morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat 

morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the 

remainder of the upcoming weekend. 



$$

KRV