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AXNT20 KNHC 110834

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Thu Apr 11 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0830 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Mississippi

to just west of the Yucatan peninsula. The front will continue to

move eastward across the Gulf waters today, shifting SE of the

area by early Fri. Strong to near gale force winds with frequent 

gusts to gale force are expected over the north- central to 

northeastern Gulf today ahead of the front. 



West Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will 

offshore of Florida will increase to strong to near gale-force

this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will

move off the Florida coast later today. Gales are expected today 

and tonight N of 29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W 

of the front tonight. Seas will peak near 13 ft later this

afternoon and evening in the area of gale force winds. 



Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 

nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near Guinea and 

continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 

03S29W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N

to 06N between 11W and 31W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the 

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf waters.



A cold front extends from Mississippi to just west of the Yucatan

peninsula. Fresh to strong winds prevail east of the front,

reaching near gale force N of 28N. Fresh to strong winds are west

of the front and N of 26N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W

of the front. Seas of 10-12 ft are found over the northern waters

east of the front to 85W. Seas greater than 8 ft also cover the

waters N of 23N between 84W and 89W, and N of 22N between 91W and

95W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-8 ft generally prevail. 



For the forecast, strong winds will prevail on both sides of

the front today, reaching near gale force over the north- central

to northeastern Gulf. The front will move SE of the area by early

Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 

with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A 1025 mb high pressure is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N61W. 

The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the 

Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force winds off the coasts 

of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to strong winds over the 

remainder of the central Caribbean, including the Windward 

Passage. A trough extends inland over the Yucatan peninsula. The

pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the 

trough is supporting fresh to strong SE winds over the western 

Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds 

are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 10 

ft range in the south central Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft over the 

remainder of the central Caribbean waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are 

also in the western Caribbean. Seas in the 4 to 7 ft range are 

found in the eastern Caribbean. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the 

south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off 

of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are expected

offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to 

strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in 

the Gulf of Honduras will prevail today before diminishing. A cold

front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and 

weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in 

effect for the West Atlantic. 



High pressure is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N61W. Light to

gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. The pressure

gradient between the area of high pressure and a cold front across

the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds off the

coast of Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds are found S of the

high center. Farther east, a cold front enters the waters near

31N33W and extends to near 24N41W where it becomes a dissipating

stationary front/shearline to the northern Lesser Antilles.

Locally strong winds are found N of the front/shearline between

55W and 62W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 20N, with

gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft

prevail off the coast of Florida. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted

between 32W and 55W, and S of 25N between 55W and 72W. Elsewhere,

seas are in the 5-7 ft range. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high SE of 

Bermuda will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move into the

waters off Florida today and tonight. Fresh to strong southerly 

winds offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas will increase to 

strong to near gale- force today. Gales are expected today and 

tonight N of 29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the

front tonight. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas

Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat 

morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the 

remainder of the upcoming weekend. 



$$

AL