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AXPZ20 KNHC 012101

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Wed May 1 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N90W to 10N105W. The

ITCZ continues from 10N105W to 08N120W to 09N130W to 1009 mb low

pressure near 07N138W. Scattered moderate convection is active

from 02N to 05N east of 85W, from 06n to 09N between 100W and

105W, within 60 nm either side of ITCZ between 115W and 125W, 

and within 60 nm of low pressure near 07N138W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 11 ft 

combined seas west over the offshore waters of Baja California 

Norte, west of Guadalupe Island. This NW swell associated with 

strong winds off southern California, between high pressure over 

the northeast Pacific and lower pressure inland. Moderate to 

fresh winds are also noted off Baja California. An overnight 

scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds funneling off 

Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with

moderate seas primarily in NW swell in open waters. 



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 

large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west

of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 

elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds 

will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 

combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and 

seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and Sun as 

the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. 

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California 

Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. 

Another round of large NW swell may follow the front. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Divergent flow aloft is supporting clusters of showers and

thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off western Panama.

Farther offshore beyond 90 nm, a scatterometer satellite pass 

indicated short duration SW flow converging into another line of 

showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere recent satellite 

scatterometer data suggests winds are light to gentle across most

of the area waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in new S swell, except 

between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, where altimeter data 

shows 6 to 7 ft seas.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will 

support light to gentle breezes with moderate SW swell into early

next week, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Broad ridging extends across the northeast Pacific, anchored by

1030 mb high pressure centered well north of the region near

37N135W. This pattern is supporting a large field of modeate to 

fresh trade winds from roughly 10N to 25N west of 125W, along

with 8 to 11 ft wave heights as noted in recent scatterometer and

altimeter satellite data. Scatterometer and alitmeter passes also

confirmed fresh to strong NW to N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas north

of 24N between 115W and 130W, between the high pressure and lower

pressure along the California coast. Trade wind convergence is

supporting active shower and thunderstorm activity along the ITCZ

between 115W and 140W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted

elsewhere along with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in a mix of N and SW

swell. 



For the forecast, expect little change in the pattern or

resultant conditions into Fri. Winds and seas will start to

diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of the area

dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will

move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually weaken as it moves

southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. $$ 

Christensen