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AXPZ20 KNHC 111601

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu Apr 11 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Seas are less than 8 ft currently, but building

rapidly and should reach around 17 ft tonight. On-going high 

pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these gales 

through Sat, dropping to near gale Sat night, and finally 

dissipating on Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 ft Sat 

afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests 

transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend 

should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take the 

necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 

affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 08N109W. The ITCZ 

continues from 08N109W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate

isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-11N between 

105W-113W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 04N-07N

between 85W-98W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



A strong late season gap wind event has just begun, producing N 

gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-7

ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter due to a weak

pressure gradient. Seas are 5-7 ft for the Pacific offshore

waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Light 

concentration of smoke is noted along and just offshore the 

Mexican coast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to agricultural 

fires.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are 

moderate or weaker through tonight. From Fri into Sat night, 

developing low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will force 

fresh to strong S winds over the N Gulf of California. Looking 

ahead, a weak cold front will be moving across the waters west of

Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun. In the wake of the cold 

front, building high pressure should cause fresh to strong NW 

winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun night into Mon.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo 

downwind to about 88W. Light and variable winds prevail across 

the rest of the Central American and Equatorial Pacific waters. 

Seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 

across the waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Hazy conditions 

observed along and just offshore northern Central America are due

to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, a large N-S pressure gradient setting up over 

Central America will increase NE to E winds up to strong tonight 

and near gale Fri night and Sat night over the Gulf of Papagayo 

region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun and Mon, but fresh 

to strong winds are expected to continue through early next week.

The same pressure gradient will cause fresh to strong N to NE 

winds over the Gulf of Panama Fri night and Sat night. Elsewhere,

winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several 

days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 

will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 

Salvador tomorrow through Sat night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Surface ridging extends southeastward from 30N127W to 20N113W to

16N103W. The modest N-S pressure gradient between the ridge and

lower pressure over the ITCZ is producing only moderate to fresh

NE trades between 05N-22N west of 115W. Seas in the area of

highest winds are 8-10 ft in mixed wind waves and NW swell.

Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker and seas are 5-7 ft.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next

couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further on

Fri and Sat. A cold front will enter our NW corner tomorrow and

bring with it fresh NW to N winds north of 25N Fri and Sat. Seas

should reach to 12 ft along our 30N northern border on Sat,

before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to N swell will 

then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south 

of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross 

the equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause

combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W.

Finally on Fri and Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E 

winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo 

region will reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. 

Seas will reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Landsea