####018005328#### AXNT20 KNHC 111655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Strong to near-gale force SW to W winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, will continue over the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Seas are 8-12 ft. The front will exit the Gulf of Mexico tonight, and conditions will then improve through the day tomorrow. West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S winds began this morning across waters offshore of northern Florida, ahead of a cold front and squall line crossing the state. Seas currently 8-10 ft will build to 8-13 ft as gales persist for the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N west of 80W, and moving eastward off of Florida. Beginning late on Friday, winds are forecast to diminish below gale force. Conditions will then improve this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the above GALE WARNINGS. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near 07N12W and continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03S33W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 13W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the GALE WARNING. Outside of the GALE WARNING area, fresh to strong NW winds prevail behind the cold front in the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong speeds across the southeast Gulf, Florida Straits, and Yucatan Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft in waters outside the Gale Warning. For the forecast, strong winds will continue to prevail on both sides of the front today, reaching near gale force over the north- central to northeastern Gulf. The front will move SE of the area by early Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Smoke from agricultural fires in Honduras has reduced visibilities to 3 SM across the Gulf of Honduras waters, according to surface observations in the region. Please exercise caution if traveling through dense smoke. The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting pulsing strong to near-gale force trades across the central Caribbean, including within coastal waters of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8-10 ft from 10N to 17N between 72W and 80W. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with seas of 4-7 ft. Weak low pressure is centered in the Gulf of Honduras, and a weak surface trough is draped across the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are expected offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras will prevail today before diminishing. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 31N62W, with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center as per the latest satellite scatterometer data. A weak stationary front extends from 31N33W to 22N42W to 18N62W. Showers are possible along the decaying boundary. A band of fresh to locally strong trades is noted from 17N to 25N between 40W and 70W; as a result of these elevated winds, seas have built to 8-10 ft within this area. South of 17N between 45W and 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds are supporting 8-9 ft seas. Remaining waters are experiencing gentle moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure SE of Bermuda will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move into the waters off Florida tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas will increase to strong to near gale- force today. Gales are expected this afternoon N of 29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the front tonight. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. $$ Mahoney