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AXPQ20 PGUM 112102

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

702 AM ChST Fri Apr 12 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

A gradually developing near-equatorial trough runs from 2N130E to a

weak circulation near 3N157E to EQ162E. Scattered showers are found

south of Koror, Palau, Yap and Chuuk, and near and south of Pohnpei

and Kosrae. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of

Kosrae.



TRADE-WIND SURGE...

The trade-wind surge is apparently strengthening again based on ASCAT

(satellite wind data). The surge now covers a large portion of Eastern

Micronesia, within an area bounded by a line from 32N180 to 20N151E to

16N151E to 10N161E to 10N168E to 18N180. The strengthening part has

winds of near gale strength near 25N175E.



OTHER SYSTEMS...

A shear line cuts across northern Micronesia from 25N150E to 20N130E.

Extensive low and mid-level clouds  and patchy showers are noted well

north of Koror Palau and Yap, and scattered showers and isolated

thunderstorms are noted north of the Marianas.



...DISCUSSION...

The near-equatorial trough will have to be watched as it's evidently

planning to stay for a while. For the next couple days at least, it

will merely create areas of showers south of the main islands. It will

most likely show little change in location and little change to slight

strengthening of intensity.



The trade-wind surge has reinvigorated itself in the northeast corner

of Micronesia. This may have to be watched also, as it's now only a

few knots short of gale force. If that should expand southward and

westward toward the islands, that would be a form of intensification,

and could bring another round of Small Craft Advisories.



The shear line continues to lie along the far northern edge of the

Micronesia area. It's showing little to none in the way of southward

progress, so it's expected to stay north of the Marianas and Wake, and

far to the north of Koror, Palau, Yap and Chuuk.



$$



Stanko