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AXPZ20 KNHC 112158

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Thu Apr 11 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2130 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 

event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Peak winds may reach strong gale tonight. Seas are 

near 11 ft currently as observed by a 1600 UTC Sentinel-3

altimeter overpass, but building rapidly and should reach around

17 ft tonight. On going high pressure north of the area will 

continue to funnel these gales through Sat morning, dropping to 

near gale or strong breeze Sat night into Sun afternoon, and 

finally dissipating on Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 

ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests 

transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend 

should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take the 

necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 

affected waters. 



Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 

Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 

more information on this event.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Panama near 09N79W to 08N109W. The ITCZ 

continues from 08N109W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-09N between 

110W-122W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 

04N-11N between 90W-98W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of

Tehuantepec gale warning.



A strong late season gap wind event is producing N gale-force 

winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 8-11 ft. 

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter due to a weak pressure 

gradient. Seas are 4-7 ft for the Pacific offshore waters and 

1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Light concentration of smoke

is noted along and just offshore the Mexican coast over the Gulf

of Tehuantepec due to agricultural fires.



For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are 

moderate or weaker through tomorrow morning. From tomorrow 

afternoon into Sat night, developing low pressure over the U.S. 

Great Basin will force fresh to strong S winds over the N Gulf of

California. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be moving 

across the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun. 

In the wake of the cold front, building high pressure should 

cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California 

peninsula Sun night into Tue. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of 

Papagayo downwind to about 90W. Light and variable winds prevail

across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial Pacific 

waters. Seas are 3-6 ft. Hazy conditions observed along and just

offshore northern Central America are due to mostly smoke 

produced by agricultural fires.



For the forecast, a large N-S pressure gradient setting up over 

Central America is increasing NE to E winds up to strong tonight 

and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night over the Gulf of 

Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into Tue, 

but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through early 

next week. The same pressure gradient will cause fresh to strong 

N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama tomorrow night and Sat 

night. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the 

next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Surface ridging extends southeastward from 30N126W to 20N115W. 

The modest N-S pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 

pressure over the ITCZ is producing only moderate to fresh NE 

trades between 05N-22N west of 120W. Seas in the area of highest

winds are 8-10 ft in mixed wind waves and NW swell. Elsewhere, 

winds are gentle or weaker and seas are 5-7 ft.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next

couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further on

Fri and Sat. A cold front will enter our NW corner tomorrow and

bring with it fresh NW to N winds north of 25N tomorrow and Sat.

Seas should reach to 12 ft along our 30N northern border on Sat,

before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to N swell will 

then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south 

of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross the

equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause 

combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. 

Finally on tomorrow and Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE 

to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo 

region will reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. 

Seas will reach up to 10 ft.



$$

Landsea