####018005580####
AXNT20 KNHC 112311

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2230 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a cold front 

extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Channel. 

Strong to near-gale force SW to W winds, with frequent gusts to 

gale force, will continue over the north-central and northeast 

Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Seas are 8-12 ft. The front 

will exit the Gulf of Mexico tonight, and conditions will then 

improve through the day tomorrow.



Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will prevail 

across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at

night off of Colombia tonight. Gale force winds are expected to 

pulse offshore Colombia on Fri night through Sun night. Seas

should peak near 12 ft during late night/early morning hours of

all three nights.



West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S winds are occurring this

afternoon across waters offshore of northern Florida as observed

by the 1539 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass, ahead of a cold front 

and squall line crossing the state. Seas currently 8-12 ft will 

be maintained for the next 18 hours. Scattered moderate 

convection is north of 29N between 77W-80W, and moving eastward 

off of Florida. Beginning late tomorrow, winds are forecast to 

diminish below gale force. Conditions will then improve this 

weekend.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details 

on the above GALE WARNINGS.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near 07N12W and 

continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03S33W to 

00N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N 

between 13W and 18W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for 

information about the GALE WARNING.



Outside of the GALE WARNING area, fresh to strong NW winds prevail

behind the cold front in the central and western Gulf of Mexico.

Ahead of the front, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong

speeds across the southeast Gulf, Florida Straits, and Yucatan

Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft in waters outside the Gale Warning. 



For the forecast, strong winds will prevail behind of the front 

tonight, reaching near gale force over the north-central to 

northeastern Gulf. The front will move SE of the area by early 

Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 

with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the CARIBBEAN

GALE WARNING.



The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high 

pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting pulsing strong to 

near-gale force trades across the central Caribbean, including 

within coastal waters of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8-10 ft

from 10N to 17N between 72W and 80W. Elsewhere, trades are 

mainly moderate with seas of 4-7 ft. Weak low pressure is 

centered in the Gulf of Honduras. Light concentration of smoke 

is noted over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the 

south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off 

of Colombia tonight. Gale force winds are expected to pulse 

offshore Colombia on Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to strong

winds in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, will 

prevail through tonight before diminishing. A cold front will 

reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and weaken over the

NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the WEST

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.



1028 mb high pressure is centered near 30N59W, with light to 

gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. A stationary 

front extends from 31N32W to 21N46W, where it becomes a

dissipating stationary front to 17N61W. Showers are possible 

along the boundary. A band of fresh to locally strong trades is 

noted from 17N to 25N between 40W and 70W; as a result of these 

elevated winds, seas have built to 8-10 ft within this area. 

South of 17N between 45W and 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds are 

supporting 8-9 ft seas. Remaining waters are experiencing gentle 

moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas. 



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure SE of Bermuda will 

shift eastward enabling a cold front to move into the waters off 

Florida tonight. Gale force southerly winds offshore of Florida 

will continue tonight ahead of the front mainly N of 30N. Rough 

seas will accompany these winds. These conditions will prevail 

through Fri morning following the front as it moves E. The front 

will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from 

near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will 

then stall and dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming 

weekend. 





$$

Mahoney/Landsea